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dingurth1 t1_iy10liq wrote

What those numbers reflect is something I heard from an online commentator. Polls usually only have a grasp on "likely voters," those engaged with the process who behave predictably.

But what's happened a lot with the last few elections is the surge in "unlikely voters." Since the polls literally aren't tracking them, that's why we see such large estimate errors.

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UnaffiliatedOpinion t1_iy1ag7t wrote

It would be interesting to know how often the polling organizations fetch their lists and how they select within those lists. For instance is it possible that by November, polling orgs were still using pre-Dobbs voter rolls? Or would they already be fetching it monthly/weekly or something?

Each time they update would have cost and overhead to deal with. But the data only costs $20 each time, which is probably fairly trivial to most pollsters.

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