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HToTD t1_ixujuq4 wrote

Reply to comment by JKUAN108 in A study of NFL games during the 2020 season suggests a link between attendance and COVID spikes in surrounding counties 14 and 21 days later. The inferred connection held strongest for games attended by 20,000-plus fans by Wagamaga

You might be able to seperate the effects if you compared (days to spike) with (attendance as a percentage of capacity) and (attendance as a percentage of expected non-covid attendance)

You'd then have variables for both fan density at the game and relative fearlessness of the fanbase. With more data, maybe global data, and some transformations you could get better results.

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JKUAN108 t1_ixul9jl wrote

They did compare attendance, with results differing with <5,000 fans and >20,000 fans.

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elralpho t1_ixvh40n wrote

They were saying attendance should be presented as percentage of max capacity though, which could add some nuance to results. From a glance at wikipedia, theres about a 20k seat difference between the smallest and largest NFL stadiums

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bkydx t1_ixv75c4 wrote

They could have also used all of the data instead of only 25% of it cherry picking games that occurred during the waves from the new covid strains and then attributing the new strains effect to the actions of 5000 people instead of the millions of students going to class and factory and office workers.

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Tony_Sacrimoni t1_ixvhmzf wrote

The study and parent comment to the one you're responding to literally say that there is only an association and cause cannot be determined from the data.

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bkydx t1_ixvi6of wrote

But even the fact they are inferring any relationship at all is misleading.

This study looked at 6 times the games with higher average attendance and showed no increase at all in covid by county because it wasn't conducted during the Beta variant outbreak.

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamanetworkopen/fullarticle/2783110

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