olddoc1 t1_izgwmim wrote
Reply to comment by TheGuvnor247 in 2 common drugs may help protect against secondary cancer, small Israeli study finds by TheGuvnor247
No. Statistical significance does not confirm the results are not accidental. Imagine getting 100 people to flip a coin 5 times. There's a good chance that one of them would get heads 5 times in a row. That may be statistically significant but it is also accidental.
chasrmartin t1_izh8ler wrote
“Statistically significant” means “the results are hard to explain as random.” Scientists often forget that not everyone is mathematically sophisticated; science journalists often went into science journalism because they think science is cool but long division made then have panic attacks.
SteveFrench1234 t1_izi0fml wrote
No, scientists don't forget not everyone is mathematically sophisticated. They just don't write their articles for the mathematically UN-sophisticated.
chasrmartin t1_izj7mqh wrote
Which is part of how it goes so wrong.
farrowsharrows t1_izgz0zz wrote
I don't think that is a good example. I am not saying you are entirely wrong but in your example of flipping coins there is nothing worth doing more research on. The authors say statistically significant indicating it needs more research. They have targeted cheap drugs to perform a function they know has tertiary effects on cancer and in two studies the similar outcomes occur at a rate that is significantly significant. And just to define it for you. Statistical significance helps quantify whether a result is likely due to chance or to some factor of interest,” says Redman.
olddoc1 t1_izh0jqj wrote
I like your last sentence. I'm not too interested in a study of 18 people with a p=0.05 result. A study of 200 people with p<.001 gets my attention.
pineconebasket t1_izh9xm6 wrote
A study of 36 people. The placebo group is important.
SocialMediaDystopian t1_izhjehr wrote
That particular example would not be statistically significant though- precisely because there's a decent enough chance of it happening randomly
doublethinkingit t1_izhpd8v wrote
What’s your null hypothesis in this example? Statistically significant means the probability of getting a more extreme result when the null hypothesis is true is less than the chosen value of alpha (typical 0.05 is selected for alpha). In the case of this article, statistical significance means that if the two populations (treated and untreated) respond in the same way (I.e., no impact of the drugs) the probability of the observed differences in the sample (or more extreme - greater differential with few secondary cancers in the treatment group) is less than alpha. Sample size is also accounted for in the statistical test. All else being equal you need a larger difference between smaller sample size values to be able to conclude statistically significant difference.
Hrambert t1_izhtoww wrote
Statistical significance means "That's odd. Maybe e should get some funding to start a bigger study because we might have found something"
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