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BurnerAcc2020 t1_j3lk3pb wrote

Has it?

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-022-01342-4

> Observed SSTs and a large ensemble of historical simulations with state-of-the-art climate models suggest the prevalence of internal AMOC variability since the beginning of the twentieth century. Observations and individual model runs show comparable SST variability in the NAWH region. However, the models’ ensemble-mean signal is much smaller, indicative of the prevalence of internal variability. Further, most of the SST cooling in the subpolar NA, which has been attributed to anthropogenic AMOC slowing, occurred during 1930–1970, when the radiative forcing did not exhibit a major upward trend. We conclude that the anthropogenic signal in the AMOC cannot be reliably estimated from observed SST. A linear and direct relationship between radiative forcing and AMOC may not exist. Further, the relevant physical processes could be shared across EOF modes, or a mode could represent more than one process. > > A relatively stable AMOC and associated northward heat transport during the past decades is also supported by ocean syntheses combining ocean general circulation models and data, hindcasts with ocean general circulation models forced by observed atmospheric boundary conditions and instrumental measurements of key AMOC components. Neither of these datasets suggest major AMOC slowing since 1980, and neither of the AMOC indices from Rahmstorf et al. or Caesar et al. show an overall AMOC decline since 1980.

The paper itself does not even find that the Atlantic meriditional overturning circulation collapses on the timescales they investigated (between now and 2300) - only the one in the Southern Ocean, by 2300, and with continually increasing emissions. Granted, earlier, some other papers which did project the collapse of the Atlantic meriditional overturning circulation - in 2200s or so, and again only under very high warming.

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CornucopiaOfDystopia t1_j3lyndo wrote

Literally not even what your own quoted excerpt from elsewhere in this thread states that, so why are you posting this? What do you think is meant by your own quoted portion which states,

>In the present study, the AMOC collapse reverses the warming seen in the smooth climate change scenarios, generating an average fall in temperature of 3.4 °C by 2080, accompanied by a substantial reduction in rainfall (−123 mm during the growing season.

Why are you deliberately and confidently misrepresenting the science on this, in multiple parts of this thread?

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