It's not a linear change, it's an exponential. I am already shocked at how well large language models are doing. I will be shocked if it's 10 years. OpenAI has thrown an army of coders at the problem since the upside for Microsoft is pretty big to automate coding.

Here is an article: https://www.semafor.com/article/01/27/2023/openai-has-hired-an-army-of-contractors-to-make-basic-coding-obsolete