Submitted by possiblybaldman t3_11a9j56 in singularity
HelloGoodbyeFriend t1_j9ragu5 wrote
Reply to comment by blueSGL in New agi poll says there is 50% chance of it happening by 2059. Thoughts? by possiblybaldman
Would be amazed if anyone accurately predicted a LLM chatbot getting to 100m users 2 months after launch in 2022.
blueSGL t1_j9rf2n4 wrote
Now come on, be fair. You know that's not the point I'm making at all.
It's people working in ML research being unable to accurately predict technological advancements, not user numbers.
You might find this section of an interview with Ajeya Cotra (of biological anchors for forecasting AI timelines fame)
Starts at 29.14 https://youtu.be/pJSFuFRc4eU?t=1754
Where she talks about how several benchmarks were past early last year that surveys of ML workers had a median of 2026.
Also she casts doubt on people that are working in the field but are not working on specifically forecasting AGI/TAI directly as a source for useful information.
HelloGoodbyeFriend t1_j9rrki2 wrote
I wasn’t challenging your point. More of a reply out of curiosity.
mouserat_hat t1_j9rrh3d wrote
What’s ML
ActuatorMaterial2846 t1_j9ru6ih wrote
Machine learning
RavenWolf1 t1_ja818p4 wrote
Main Lead in books. It might also mean Male Lead depending of context or it might be Machine Learn at here.
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