There is no way to know. Really any person who gives you a year for singularity is is full of shit.

In one hand, exponential improvement could make it happen sooner than we could even imagine, many companies or countries don't share their R+D info, so we wouldn't even notice.

In the other hand, many companies like Google who are developing big AI's might face financial problems because of them if they are not very proffitable, such as a decrease as the money paid by advertisers or cloud storage. They are risking their current working model for one in which they are not the monopolistic leaders and might not be as lucrative as the leading position they had until now. This is a big danger for ai, because if it turns un-proffitable, big tech companies will reduce their investments thus s lowing it's development speed. HOWEVER, Satia Nadella said in the last Microsoft presentation for the GPT-Bing integration that "the AI wars have started" so it looks unlikely that investment in them will go down in the following years.

Here's my "bananas" prediction (PURE FICTION).

In 2023 we will see chat gpt becoming just a great user interface, great if combined with powerful apis with updated content. We will be able to choose if use it in internet browsers search, but other products will appear allowing to interact with video, voice, images... all at once. Most people will be unable to use it though.

By 2025 Bing will be as used as google, because of the functionalities of the integration between Open AI and Microsoft's software. Many experts on this softwares will make big money offering solutions to medium sized companies to implement them. Many companies will not addapt and face big decreases in their revenues. Many movements of affraid people will create anti-ai trends in social media, traditional media companies will amplify this fear through anti-ai news, creating social disagreement about it, polytical polarization.

By 2030, many European countries will be making HUGE bans on AI companies due to the fear and inconvenience from workers with graphic arts, design, music and writing backgrounds. Countries like India, China, Turkey and Russia will invest strongly in this technologies. Conservative political western parties and far-left will include their oposition to big-ai companies in their polytical programs too. Big changes will come in porn, music and other entertainment industries in which most of the content will be ai-produced or ai-enhanced.

By 2040 it will become obvious that countries without AI restrictions achieve a higher level of efficiency in certain industries, plus many of the friction created for job destruction will be reduced enough for polytical parties to forget about it. Then it will become a polytical strategy to bet into it for military reasons, and both left and right will be highly investing into it to manipulate public opinions.

From then on, it's just a matter of time to AI to develop exponentially, maybe it's 10 more, maybe it's 30 years, not only for economical but also for military reasons. I don't believe it can be later than 2070 before China or USA achieve ai singularity.