I'm pretty deep into this field. I have published in the field, and have followed it almost since it started with Yudkowsky.

I believe they both have strong arguments. Or rather, those who share Altmann's cautious-but-optimistic view have strong arguments.

But both arguments are based on how AGI will be built. And we simply don't know that. So we can't accurately guess our odds.

But it's for sure that working hard on this problem will improve our odds of a really good future over disaster.