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HeinrichTheWolf_17 t1_ja3q13b wrote

Reply to comment by Motion-to-Photons in AI technology level within 5 years by medicalheads

I'm more than certain it's going to be a hard takeoff at this point. There's no reason to assume an advanced LLM or an actual AGI would take as long as a Human to mature.

I would say ever since 2011 the soft takeoff camp has been getting a weaker and weaker case.

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Motion-to-Photons t1_ja40xlh wrote

True, but how long did human intelligence take to mature?

Perhaps it depends on your definition. 2011 to 2028 might have seemed like a soft (and manageable) takeoff in 2011?, but here with are in 2023 and some people seem to suggest that AI isn’t even intelligent yet?!

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IronJackk t1_ja56czs wrote

I'd say we're in the middle of the slow takeoff

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