SuperSpaceEye t1_jdxhwi6 wrote on March 27, 2023 at 10:23 PM

Reply to comment by Gortanian2 in Singularity is a hypothesis by Gortanian2

Yeah, moore's law is already ending, but it doesn't really matter for neural networks. Why? As they are massively parallelizable, GPU makers can just stack more cores on a chip (be it by making chips larger, or thicker (3d stacking)) to speedup training further.
True, but we don't know where is that limit, and it just has to be better than humans.
I really doubt it.

Ok_Tip5082 t1_jdyvidj wrote on March 28, 2023 at 4:52 AM

We're still going to be limited by fab capacity, rare earth minerals, energy, and maintenance technicians.

Supply chain still rules above all. Trade needs to exist until/unless post scarcity hits.

Ok_Tip5082 t1_jdyuuwy wrote on March 28, 2023 at 4:46 AM

Energy is still finite, and AI uses an absolute fuck ton compared to the human brain. I don't see a practical way to scale it up with current technology that wouldn't also allow for genetic engineering to make us compete just as well, but more resiliently.

Also, We literally just had a 10-100x carrington event miss us in the last two weeks. That shit would set us back to the industrial era at best, above-human-AI or not.

If it turns out AGI can figure out a way to get infinite energy without destroying everything, hey, problem solved! No more conflict! Dark forest avoided!