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NonDescriptfAIth t1_jdrmjox wrote

This is a very age dependent question.

I think to be prudent, one should assume that very little will change in the next 15 years.

Beyond that, I think it would be borderline ludicrous to assume that the economy will function in a way that even slightly resembles what it does today.

Universal basic income seems like a natural path. I won't entertain a reality in which AGI is realized and UBI does not exist in some form, this would be a dystopian place to exist unworthy of any meaningful planning now beyond 'buy land and build a bunker'.

The majority of white collar jobs will be gone. With only niche or heavily modified roles remaining.

New jobs will emerge to promote human wellness. Things like the government paying people to go walking together or to spend time with the elderly.

Technical labour jobs will probably be the last things to go, things like electricians, plumbers, fireman, paramedics. Expect these positions to be highly esteemed and massively compensated financially.

There will be a lot of work to do in rolling out this tech internationally. Eliminating poverty globally and the like will probably be a priority for the newly redundant white collar professionals looking for something meaningful to do with their time and money.

I think the very notion of retirement will become fuzzy and quick. What exactly is retirement in a world where there is no work to retire from?

Realistically 'stopping working' will become equivalent to 'reducing daily activity'. This will probably be discouraged massively given that daily engagement in both physical and mentally challenging tasks is a huge predictor of health in older age. People usually die soon after retirement. If the nature of 'work' is enjoyable and promotes a healthy lifestyle, why not extend it as long as possible?

Apologies to the Frenchmen reading this.

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eJaguar t1_jdrz8vc wrote

>People usually die soon after retirement. If the nature of 'work' is enjoyable and promotes a healthy lifestyle, why not extend it as long as possible?

that's a feature for the modern aristocracy. make them as much money as possible, and then die after you are unable to do so any longer so they don't have to pay taxes to support your deprived elderly ass. iirc like a quarter of people or something like that don't make it to retirement age anyway, toss a coin twice and see how many times in lands on the time face twice in a row, that's the chance of you not even seeing retirement age, especially in good health.

these are very pretty assumptions that i don't think take into account the automated kill drones that are going to be around this time. misouri effectively made it illegal to be homeless, the poor are viewed with contempt in the USA, even by other poor people. unless something dramatically changes culturally in fly-over USA, things seem like they're just going to get really fucking grim for many people, as they already are now.

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NonDescriptfAIth t1_jds2d28 wrote

>these are very pretty assumptions that i don't think take into account the automated kill drones that are going to be around this time.

OP asked for practical advice to do with retirement. I mused on the possibility that things go very wrong by saying:

>this would be a dystopian place unworthy of any meaningful planning now beyond 'buy land and build a bunker'.

I'm well aware of the negative possibilities that stem from AI.

If we continue on our current trajectory the odds that this doesn't end in a nuclear apocalypse is near 0.

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Petaranax t1_jds5ysj wrote

While I understand majority of what you’re saying and agree mostly with it, I think that UBI may look like natural path, but in reality it will be really hard to achieve. Even for most socialist focused countries in the world, making UBI feasible is a feat close to a miracle. I believe that we’re going to end up mid way to dystopian future where majority will have no jobs and will generate alternative job markets where they’ll work for food and scraps, while the corporate jobs and super rich will have AI and enjoy majority of the benefits from it. Unfortunately, I really don’t see how we end up with UBI soon after AGI (or even before it as it might become necessary). Also, another thing is, not every country will develop UBI models as fast as everyone thinks. We’re still super fragmented in the world, we can’t decide on one simple thing like borders of countries or removing them completely, let alone implement UBI on civilization level. I’m pretty sure USA won’t even be among the first ones to do so. UBI will come eventually, but it will be decades before we implement it, and I fear that those decades will be one of the worst times in human civilization time.

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