Submitted by Effective-Dig8734 t3_xt7no0 in singularity
manOnPavementWaving t1_iqohe5w wrote
Reply to comment by Midori_Schaaf in Why I am optimistic about the Optimus bot by Effective-Dig8734
Except of course for all the companies that have also been doing this. Saycan (https://arxiv.org/abs/2204.01691) actually manages to perform arbitrary tasks with very decent performance, more transparent research (not in open sourcing, but definitely in explaining their method) and google has much more experience with AI (not that it matters much).
Optimus could become very cool, but Tesla decidedly hasnt got an edge in this space
Lone-Pine t1_iquqkcj wrote
What exactly can Saycan do? All I've seen it do is deliver a sponge and misplace an empty coke can.
Effective-Dig8734 OP t1_iqojm71 wrote
Tesla most certainly does have an edge in this space at least when it comes to ai navigating the real world
Talkat t1_iqos2n2 wrote
They have massive edges:
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AI: leaders in the model, their training setup, their data aquisition, and their own hardware
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Manufacturing: a world leader in advanced manufacturing with multiple massive factories incljding products like motors, batteries and castings.. all things helpful for robots
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Org Structure: this might seem like a small one, but I don't think you should underestimate the structure of musk companies. It enables rapid innovation and can scale.
salaryboy t1_iqpsgco wrote
Exactly. There are several dozen companies that could achieve #1 (most major tech companies, soon to include midsize) and a few that can do #2 (mostly car companies). Tesla has both, which may be almost unique outside of perhaps Amazon (their acquired robotics tech is highly advanced, but not nearly to Tesla's scale).
This won't be fast, but if they have the will to do it the tech may be doable in 4-6 years. If it starts to take off, expect to see collabs between Microsoft and Ford or Google, Boston Dynamics, and GM to build similar.
ArgentStonecutter t1_iqp00wx wrote
Tesla is notorious for manufacturing quality issues and just generally winging it.
Talkat t1_iqpjjp8 wrote
Compare the growth in their manufacturing capacity. From 50k cars to 5m in ten years. That's 100x.
If your growing that fast of course your going to run into issues. But the bigger take away is that they can grow that fast and I can't think of another company with that level of performance
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