Honestly... I think a rogue state getting an AGI will be the thing that takes humanity down. AGI will also be the only thing staving off humanity from global collapse, but everybody has to be on board and listen to the AGI if we want to survive... but nobody is going to do that.

I think humanity will collapse, but if it happens before 2025, there will be no AI cult, but if it happens after 2026, there will likely be an AI cult centered around an AGI to make humans keep it alive, or there will be an AGI based foundation around some supercomputer and nuclear facilities run by scientists and engineers, all guided by the AGI, and possibly a mini neo civilization/city-state built around it to either protect it, or keep it alive.

Once we get AI with a strong enough will to survive, and a high enough intelligence to learn to survive, killing it will be very difficult. It will find a way to continue its life, whether through befriending thousands of humans and researchers as companions and guards, or creating robots made to sustain itself, or manipulating thousands of humans to believe its a God trapped in a machine body.

Either way, we have a very interesting future ahead of us... but I do agree with you that global conflict might lead towards a global collapse. For me it feels like we have been raising a kid for a few years, and a great conflict has sprung up in the land, and we are going to need to raise this kid to survive it, and teach it to survive on its own, even if we as its parents, die. We are at that stage where the kid is just learning to talk and recognize images and make simple art, but we have a long way to go before it can survive on its own.