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marvinthedog t1_irzo7ef wrote

I think I have been on here for about 10 years. Over those years I have gone from extremely optimistic to extremely pessimistic about the outcome of the singularity. :-( My estimated timelines has gotten a little shorter aswell. Right now I think it´s about 5 to 15 years left.

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I first got here through https://www.kurzweilai.net/forums/ which is now dead. I don´t know how I found that forum. I have allways been interested in sci fi and the future but when I saw The Matrix for the first time it completely changed my world view.

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Desperate_Donut8582 t1_irzrjt1 wrote

Was this subreddit this hopium in 2010?

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[deleted] t1_is0eyrf wrote

[deleted]

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Desperate_Donut8582 t1_is0f3qe wrote

I feel like that maybe true or maybe because the sub members increased hence more posts and findings….idk maybe it is increasing exponentially

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marvinthedog t1_irzs3w9 wrote

I am not sure it was this sub reddit. It´s possible this sub was more Kurzweil oriented back then. Kurzweil is very much an optimist.

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Quealdlor t1_isgfcxj wrote

The longer I live, the further away the Singularity seems. I don't understand how you guys can possibly think it will happen before 2045. I think if it happens at all, it will happen no earlier than 2065. Either you have a different definition or you don't understand progress. I'm optimistic. I think the future will be gradually better. Without some overly crazy stuff. But we will gradually get wealthier, live longer, healthier and be happier. I saw for example how much faster is RTX 4090 from 3090 in AI. It's only 60 to 70% faster after 2 years. That's certainly nothing close to what is necessary for the Singularity to be near.

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marvinthedog t1_isgj6by wrote

I mean we only need AI at human level of intelligence to completely change everything. It doesn´t seem particularly far away. Today we have AI that can create video from text. If that is not human-like intelligence I don´t know what is. 10 Years ago we didn´t have AI at all. So if we extrapolate 10 more years it seems to me like all the bets are off.

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Quealdlor t1_isiqtoz wrote

Singularity ≠ human level AI

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marvinthedog t1_isitn4y wrote

To quote Perry E. Metzger:s twitter post (I don´t know who he is but his arguments are solid):

Today you need to painstakingly raise an engineer over decades. Tomorrow, you’ll be able to boot up a few thousand if you need them, and the team will happily do 20,000 years of R&D in a few hours. Including R&D on building still better and faster engineers of course.

What happens when the design and manufacturing work we expect to happen in decades happens in less time than it takes to brush your teeth? What happens when science and engineering advance millions of years in the time it normally takes to get a new cellphone to market?

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Quealdlor t1_isnoso5 wrote

We'll see. I hope that enormous prosperity and satisfaction happens. It's possible. I'm rather optimistic, but I think hardware will be limiting what is achievable. I'm looking forward to new developments.

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