AdditionalPizza OP t1_isfk1jm wrote on October 15, 2022 at 4:25 PM

Reply to comment by michael_mullet in We've all heard the trope that to be a billionaire you essentially have to be a sociopath; Could we cure that? Is there hope? by AdditionalPizza

This sub is literally about an AI revolution that essentially cancels capitalism because it likely won't work post-singularity, possibly pre-singularity as I'm hinting at in my original post.

Capitalism is currently the best we have, and it's "worked" well enough to get us this far. But I can't imagine a future with automated workers, and the unemployed just die off.

michael_mullet t1_isfq1o5 wrote on October 15, 2022 at 5:07 PM

I understand that point of view, I'm trying to provide a counterpoint. Just because the industrial revolution eliminated 90% of agricultural Era jobs didn't mean that people were just cattle to be culled. Same thing with the decline of manufacturing.

Prior economic revolutions replaced existing employment with higher paying, more productive work. The same thing will happen over the next 20 years. I don't know what it will look like - maybe early career starts as a manager of AI/robotic "workers." Maybe AGI psychologist becomes a popular field.

Although UBI sounds like a great idea that's fair and helps everyone, it seems to devalue individual worth. "You can't do as well as the machines, so we'll put you out to pasture." There's an under current of defeatism to it, but I think the AI revolution offers a more positive future even as it is destructive.

AdditionalPizza OP t1_isfv03z wrote on October 15, 2022 at 5:41 PM

>The same thing will happen over the next 20 years.

The problem would be that AI would be cheaper, and perform several magnitudes more efficiently. There just won't be a job that AI can't perform better and for less cost. 24/7. At that point why would we even be striving for work? We should be striving to be unshackled from working half our lives.

>devalue individual worth

This could be the hard pill to swallow during an upcoming revolution for a lot of people. The "value" and "worth" will cease to exist. People will have to come to terms with unemployment no longer being a thing, it's simply mandatory employment disappears.

The part I worry about is the people that believe employment is essential and will prolong the suffering of many by dragging others to the bottom before the eventual collapse of the system. UBI is simply a stop-gap.

michael_mullet t1_isg7b0t wrote on October 15, 2022 at 7:08 PM

Hmmm. I appreciate your responses, you've given me some things to think about. It's likely that regions/countries will approach these issues differently which will give us opportunity to see what works.

I still think there will be work for people, but it may be "make work" of the FDR New Deal style.

AdditionalPizza OP t1_isgcin7 wrote on October 15, 2022 at 7:45 PM

I think it's correct to assume different countries will attempt different things. It's really hard to say because while we can compare revolutions in history, it doesn't really help us understand the implications of this one. This isn't the industrial revolution, this is a replacement of the of the entire workforce sector by sector. The first sectors to go might find other employment. Then more sectors will go, and then more.

We're waiting on the first big sector to go nearly or fully automated. Graphic designers aren't a sector, they're part of a creative sector. When entertainment and art is mostly automated we will see. But it could be medicine, could be legal, could be computer sciences, could be retail. It could be ones that have labour involved but that seems less likely at the moment but if there's a breakthrough in robotics soon that will spell the end of that sector.

One sector will probably knock I don't know, 5% of the workforce out? Maybe more? That's an immediate crises. Then another. Then another.

>I still think there will be work for people, but it may be "make work" of the FDR New Deal style.

That's probably a solution we'll see attempted, but I don't know. I don't want to see that. That's a bandage for a giant wound. It might work for a few months, but then more people become unemployed.

Open AI's Codex is crazy. That tech will accelerate all facets of IT, which means we are increasing the rate of exponential growth by orders of magnitude.

But you know, I hope you're view on it is more correct than mine. At least for this transition period coming up soon enough.