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Cryptizard t1_it4gkne wrote

I think this post is going to age super poorly. You seem unrealistically optimistic, given the information we have. There have been great strides in some very specific areas of AI, and for sure it is going to change some things in the next few years, but your other implications are unfounded.

We have had GitHub copilot for a year now, which applies LLMs to programming, and nobody I know besides me has even heard of it, let alone use it for real programming. And I am in a CS department. We are nowhere near the elbow of the exponential curve yet 15 more years at least.

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AdditionalPizza OP t1_it4ke0n wrote

Every single target that LLM's have had in their scope so far start out slow, and then become useful to the general public and private sectors. A ton of people use copilot, what are you talking about? And copilot is powered by Codex, and Codex is being updated with self correction and testing. It's a matter of time at this point.

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Cryptizard t1_it4u7sr wrote

A matter of lots of time. Coding productivity is not the bottleneck for any industry at this point.

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AdditionalPizza OP t1_it4v3ys wrote

Coding productivity is a bottleneck for every IT industry. But that's not the point.

LLM's will target these industries, and LLM's are written by programmers. Programmers that can more efficiently write code and design LLM's will make better LLM's.

LLM's that can help design better LLM's, that are targeted at helping productivity in every other sector.

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Cryptizard t1_it4vqzx wrote

>Programmers that can more efficiently write code and design LLM's will make better LLM's.

Wtf are you talking about. Programmers don't make better LLMs. Extremely specialized AI experts make better LLMs. You are making no sense.

Edit: Oh I think I have figured it out. You are writing these posts with a LLM. That is why everything you say seems like it is vaguely coherent but if you try to think about it for more than a minute you realize it is complete nonsense.

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AdditionalPizza OP t1_it4x6zl wrote

Do you think LLM's have zero programming involved?

If I'm not making sense to you, it's because you don't want to make sense of it in the first place.

LLM's will help develop and train new LLM's, soon if not already. Whether directly or indirectly doesn't even matter at this point, but they will directly in the near future.

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imlaggingsobad t1_it5foga wrote

in 2016 you would never have predicted the rapid progress over the next 5 years from 2017-2022. Same thing now. You will be dumbfounded by what will be achieved from 2023-2028.

edit: changed the dates

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Cryptizard t1_it6l69b wrote

What rapid progress from 2016-2021?

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imlaggingsobad t1_it6qpkg wrote

oh just that thing called transformers

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Cryptizard t1_it6v3aq wrote

So one thing that was invented in 5 years. Cool cool cool. Very rapid progress, never had that happen before.

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s2ksuch t1_it8vp8i wrote

Yeah thats the only thing that was ever invented in those five years 🙄

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Cryptizard t1_it8w16y wrote

I asked what was the rapid progress, he named one thing. I am pointing out how stupid it is to call one thing rapid progress. Thanks for your input, person who clearly didn't understand the exchange.

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BinyaminDelta t1_it9b37h wrote

Nobody in your Computer Science department has HEARD OF COPILOT?

Sorry but what? This is either untrue or you need to get out of that department right now.

I'm a truck driver who dabbles in side coding projects and I know what CoPilot is.

How can somebody even casually interested in coding, AI, and technology not know?

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Cryptizard t1_it9b6x4 wrote

Because it’s not that great. It’s a parlor trick. It’s kind of helpful at reminding you which function to call in an API that you haven’t used in a while, but more than 1-2 lines of code and it has tons of errors you have to fix. Half the time it ends up being slower than programming manually because you have to really carefully read the code it generates to make sure it didn’t do something stupid.

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Konpasu t1_it6ejo1 wrote

Appreciate your mention of copilot! I use it as a game developer for mostly HTML/Javascript based games. I was happy to get early access to it and it definitely blew me away how you're able to write comments and the model will write code based on your comment. I really only use it for code that I forget sometimes, like how to just center an element. For that reason, I think it could also be a good learning tool, whether it has good programming habits or writes efficiently I'm not sure though.

It's cool for what it is, but I definitely can't see it for projects that require more knowledge and engineering. At least for a good couple more years. :)

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