Viewing a single comment thread. View all comments

Bierculles t1_it67oy6 wrote

Just so you know the thing with programmers beeing 10% more effective, we are actually way past that allready. Google reported that programmers that use Githubs copilote that is based on the codex AI are 55% more productive than their peers who don't. A single AI boosted productivity by over 50%, that is quite frankly completely insane.

And codex will get a lot better over the next few years I asume, probably even months. I can absolutely see this happen by 2025. Probably not the singularity or AGI, but a massive shift with the narrow AI we allready have alone.

13

AdditionalPizza OP t1_it6rg5b wrote

Yeah, I was saying it as an example, and in a multiplicative way. 10% on top of the already 50% sort of deal. But didn't want to use numbers like 1000%.

>Probably not the singularity or AGI, but a massive shift with the narrow AI we allready have alone.

Agreed. But that massive shift is going to be a ride before AGI. I know my post sounds very matter-of-fact and I debated the potential of looking like an idiot in 3 years. But 2022 has been hard to keep up with, barring some external forces causing an immediate halt on technological progress, I'm very certain 2025 and beyond we will start seeing societal shifts across industries.

The further past 2025 we get the more disruptions we'll see.

8