beachmike t1_itcfs0w wrote on October 22, 2022 at 4:05 PM

I agree with everything you're saying. Another thing to take into consideration is that the RATE of acceleration of technological change is itself increasing (the 3rd derivative), which, to my knowledge, Ray Kurzweil was the first to point out.

AdditionalPizza OP t1_itcgkgk wrote on October 22, 2022 at 4:11 PM

That's what I'm saying when I talk about programming being automated for efficiency. We will have behind the scenes transformative AI (already do, but it will be increasing over 5 years) which is potentially increasing the rate.

It's hard to gauge it, but it's there. I'm at the point I feel like I'm too "optimistic" but it's not impossible I'm being conservative in some aspects.

I think robotics and medicine will increase much quicker than people expect. Similar to LLM increases today. I think LLM's still have a lot of uptick ahead though. Of course I could be wrong, I'm not a prophet and don't pretend to be. I'm just going by the generally accepted graphs we've all seen.