I argue that the singularity starts when the progress and trajectory becomes wildly unpredictable at human scale(exaflop 100 trillion parameters).

Gpt-3 early to late has comparable SAT/ACT/IQ skills to a 90-105 IQ 16-19 year old. If gpt-4 is the same kind of jump that's 115 IQ college juniors by 2023

"The technological singularity, or simply the singularity, is a hypothetical moment in time when artificial intelligence will have progressed to the point of a greater-than-human intelligence. " - this sub

2023 could be the year. It's unpredictable. No one can know what a 100 trillion parameter model will look like until it's finished. 5 years ago we could argue that 100 trillion was still 100,000x away and come up with some arbitrary date post 2029. But now that it's the stated goal of many teams and the industry, anything smaller(1T and 10T done in 2021) won't do for 2023.

We have to prepare for a machine that can out think college educated adults no later than December 2024. Even if it doesn't happen, come december 2024 this sub is going to start a minutes to midnight counter for gpt-5.