Thanks for letting me attend your TED talk.

what happened the last time you had a good feeling about a year?

This sub is becoming /r/casualconversation isn’t it?

Your last post was on r/astrologychartshare. I didn't know this sub had people that believe in astrology.

My intuition is usually more about my personal life than global stuff. There was a strange feeling in the air a couple of months before my grandmother died, a month before my grandfather died, at the exact moment in 2008 a friend of mine was being mugged, the morning in 1997 where our dog died in the afternoon, once in 2004 I thought "Someone I know is dead" when the high school intercom turned on seconds before announcing the death of a classmate. So I trust my intuition that 2023 will be epic and cause a lot of seismic shifts.

I think GPT-4 is going to be another huge leap. It will be so capable that some people are going to get genuinely scared that AI will replace jobs in just a matter of years. The engineering community will be high on hopium. Singularitarianism will boom. VC funding will boom. Most researchers will start accepting that AGI is the ultimate goal, and it's imminent. We'll start seeing more mainstream news coverage. It's gonna be wild.

N-no bully. (I don't really believe in astrology, it's just fun)

Aha. Okay then…

🤦🏻‍♂️

gotcha, well I hope youre correct. I'd love an epic 2023 in a fun, party like its 1999 type of way.

Oh trust me a lot of loonies end up here

Source: vibes

and we'll still live shitty lives unless someone like Yang can get any traction, which would require the majority to be educated on the topic, which won't happen.

Partially, yeah. But it's also a logical continuation of 2022, where progress has sped up much moreso than ever before.

love how in 2014 everyone took TED Talks seriously and now it's just a meme

It sounds like the next apocalypse honestly based on your last predictions. If we are going off what you can see… it’s death. You’re death incarnate. If you want to believe in such things.

Can people that have an interest in the advancement of technology not also have religious and spiritual beliefs?

Conversely, I predict 2023 will be the last "quiet" year in retrospect.

So long as the Ukraine War doesn't explode into something nastier, my prediction is that 2023 will be a fantastic year for AI progress, but largely more of the same as well. It's 2024 that we'll start noticing genuine changes to our very collective psyche and general condition as a result of technology.

To those who say "How can you say that after DALL-E 2, Stable Diffusion, LaMDA, and PaLM?" and my answer is "Exactly."

Depends on what their religious beliefs are. I was born in a Muslim family and I was very pious, until I came to the conclusion that a sincere belief in Islam is incompatible with 'belief' in science. One of the central tenets of Islam is that this world is temporary and the goal of a human ought to be to please God so as to gain entry into paradise in their afterlife. And so I don't think that it's possible for a Muslim to stay faithful whilst also being heavily invested in technological advancements, because if he believes in Allah then he should be following Allah's commands and worshipping him 24/7 in the hopes of being granted paradise.

But that's my personal opinion. There are millions of Muslims who are perfectly able to reconcile their belief in God with their interest in technological advancements. Good for them. I can't do that. But if I was born in a family that believed in a God that doesn't interfere with his creation, maybe I would have still retained my faith.

I think that’s fair. Although we’ll definitely get a lot of cool things next year, the truly useful stuff will probably arrive a bit later, maybe 2024 or 2025.

It won't happen overnight, but it will happen. Tell people about it. I do. Not everybody is able or willing to listen, but some people's eyes just light up when you tell them what's coming. Spread the word friend.

There were some good ones... but eventually their pretentiousness was impossible to ignore.

You might be right about that. A lot of new things have been introduced in 2022, and those things will continue to be improved, but of course that doesn't make waves that are as big as the original introduction of those things. But, hey, at the beginning of 2022 I had no idea all this image generation stuff was on the way, so who knows. Sometimes new things just come out of nowhere. Other times, we're waiting on them for decades and progress seems glacial.

Don't forget China and Taiwan (where the world's only 3nm chip fabs are).

List all the things that will happen . GO ON

I strongly doubt China will attack Taiwan within the next five years. They simply don't have the capability just yet, despite what our warmongering media keeps hyping up. At most, they could bombard the island with rockets and artillery. My prediction is that, if China decides to invade Taiwan, they will first invade some other country or territory to test their military might (one of the central Asian -stans or Mongolia, most likely), and if they do any better than outright failure, then that'll be a telegraph of their intentions.

It's entirely Ukraine that worries me because we in the West deeply underestimate how much it means to the Russians. There's only a small chance we could finagle a win without pushing the Russians to use nuclear weaponry, and it remains to be seen if we'll capture that chance. It's either that or a long, very brutal protracted war.

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You think ONE language model is going to cause all of this? What if it's not even THAT much better than it's predecessor (I mean it could be, but it could also not be, time will tell)? The AI researcher community hasn't even reached a consensus that language models are the way forward, so this comment strikes me as a bit optimistic. But like I said, time will tell if you're right or not.

Why I will win the 2024 US Presidential election by a Landslide victory as a write in party free candidate.

>It's 2024 that we'll start noticing genuine changes to our very collective psyche and general condition as a result of technology.

Such massive changes will be imposed upon humanity in just 2 years?? Color me skeptical, as an incomprehensible amount of technological progress and societal mass adoption would have to occur in just one pair of years for such changes to come to pass in 2024. But nonetheless I respect your opinion 😊.

what do you think I've been doing for the last 6 years? It feels hopeless, all I get is people arguing with me, people seem to prefer to stay ignorant and separate so they can pursue their own personal corrupt desires without any restraint because people are short-sighted fucked up pieces of shit. The rich control everything and keep the masses ignorant with such superb skill that we are way too distracted and divided to organize ourselves and change things in any significant way. Many Republicans are religious nutjobs that can't be reasoned with, and/or old and wealthy and thus don't want to risk investing a single penny into society.

What could be made pretentious about a six grader quality PowerPoint presentation lol

Less that massive changes will start being imposed on humanity, and more that the current paradigms will start affecting wider society.

Yes, we'll have some amazingly advanced technology that will spook people in 2024. Perhaps even a proto-AGI system. But it'll affect your life about as much as LaMDA or PaLM does now.

Instead, what will really matter circa 2024 is that things like LaMDA and DALL-E 2 will start genuinely affecting the very perception of modern life in the average person. Existing image generation technology will be so widely disseminated that there will probably be apps to generate images built into Facebook, Imgur, TikTok, and Reddit by then. Natural language models will have upended publishing and literature, democratizing high quality prose and giving us a flourishing of interactive storytelling. And related to that, we'll undoubtedly see natural language bots spread throughout society to the point that Siri will be replaced by something of similar quality to LaMDA while translation services will seem perfect.

All of which will directly impact the daily life of Average Joe because he can now actually, intuitively use all of this technology. He won't realize when these things creeped into his daily life, but he's regularly talking to his smartphone in full conversation and generating little bits of media to amuse himself. By 2024, this will be daily life. And thus there will also be the obvious discussions about the implications of all this. We can't keep the status quo going when it's blatantly obvious that disruption is occurring, so 2024 is about as good of a year as any as we'll start hearing of things like art and modeling schools starting to lose funding or artists lobbying to regulate synthetic media technologies.

Even right now, he'd have to go out of his way to find something like DALL-E 2 or Stable Diffusion. We're still at the bleeding edge of all this. As of 2022, there's zero threat to art schools or low-level musicians from procedural generation, and AI certainly isn't good enough to make robots more of a thing either. It's an astoundingly good year for AI, undoubtedly, but it's going to take some time for this all to infringe upon our daily lives in any meaningful way. The experiences of geeks doesn't count.

You think whatever Andrew yang is saying is the way to do that?

Not exactly, he doesn't have a comprehensive plan to totally fix everything in the long-run and create an optimal technocracy, he's just the closest.

Oh, so you're saying that you believe that the tech we have now will go mainstream in a few years and that is what will cause changes in society? I get you.

My source is that I made it the fuck up

I mean... if you've paid attention at all during 2022, it's pretty easy to extrapolate. Why all the downvotes when I'm really just saying what the majority of this sub has already been saying for the entire year?

I have a feeling there are a lot of people on here that believe in astrology but are quiet about it. Which honestly I appreciate being that most religious people are anything but quiet about their beliefs.

Source: just trust me bro

Me too. Limited (hopefully) nuclear exchange and record droughts and fires.

personally I think we should start launching billionaires into the sun.

Glad your intuition is accurate.

Thanks for all the examples of accuracy.

(Where are those, btw?)

Removed 🤨