Submitted by sonderlingg t3_ybh3k3 in singularity
DukkyDrake t1_itnn0dn wrote
Reply to comment by Effective-Dig8734 in What will singularity lead to? by sonderlingg
When I say societal changes, I refer to the large societal level structures that enable society to function. If the supply chain for food stuffs stops working, how long do you think you could survive after the shelves at your local supermarket goes empty. That sort of thing.
If changes occur in days or weeks and not on decadal or centuries timescale, parts of your society could stop functioning before the tech that permit some workers to walkaway reaches everyone. That's why fast societal level changes destabilize society and endangers its ability to support its populational. It's almost always bad, the only sorts of thing that causes fast societal level changes are usually actual revolutions/wars. Industrial revolution wasn't quick, that played out over the course of almost a century. Collapse all those changes down to a week or 2 and you might be closer to the mark.
That's also why there can't be a Ubi before AI replaces most job, the desperate low way wage workers could just walkaway resulting in civilizational collapse.
>I think that society will change at whatever rate is necessary,
Society isn't a monolithic thing, it's a bunch of individuals doing their own thing. It's structured in such a way where there are only a few degrees of freedom that allows one to survive easily. Basically, get a job, earn money, buy food and shelter. Increase those degrees of freedom with tech that allow survival independent of society, most people would walk away. Tech never spreads uniformly and instantaneously. You need society to survive until you reach a state where you no longer do, transitioning from one state to the next is fraught with peril.
>this says nothing of the rate that social progress will move
The Technological Singularity has everything to do with that rate of change on human society, else no one would really care. The Singularity isn't a future point where companies are simply selling new fancy consumer products faster and faster, this event won't be in the control of baseline humans.
>is a hypothetical future point in time at which technological growth becomes uncontrollable and irreversible, resulting in unforeseeable changes to human civilization
> "centered on the accelerating progress of technology and changes in the mode of human life, which gives the appearance of approaching some essential singularity in the history of the race beyond which human affairs, as we know them, could not continue"—John von Neumann
>The concept and the term "singularity" were popularized by Vernor Vinge in his 1993 essay The Coming Technological Singularity, in which he wrote that it would signal the end of the human era, as the new superintelligence would continue to upgrade itself and would advance technologically at an incomprehensible rate.
Effective-Dig8734 t1_itnsvge wrote
The main problem with this is that you are assuming all change is bad. Which mind you, the thing up for discussion is whether this change will be good or bad. I’m saying it is more likely to be good than to be bad. I don’t see how you’re jumping from fast technological progress to society stopping. It seems like you’re saying that there will be a time difference in between when the first workers start to get “replaced” and the last workers do. However this is something that will most likely happen Far before the technological singularity.
It just seems to me that we are not actually getting to the root of the argument which is whether it is more likely to be positive or negative for society, historically the industrial revolutions and things of that nature which are a type of scaled down singularity have been extremely positive for society
DukkyDrake t1_itnwmz5 wrote
> The main problem with this is that you are assuming all change is bad.
No, I just never worry about the good cases. The good case is the default state, one only need concern themselves with the bad cases.
>I don’t see how you’re jumping from fast technological progress to society stopping.
How can you not see that pathway. The biggest is fast technological progress creates a super intelligent agent and it accidentally kills everyone.
>which is whether it is more likely to be positive or negative for society
One cannot predict what the world looks like after the singularity, hence the name.
One can theorize about the kinds of tech the avg person could get their hands on, just about anything permitted by physics, and what would do with it. It would take just 1 person to make that choice.
>historically the industrial revolutions and things of that nature which are a type of scaled down singularity have been extremely positive for society
Did those past events, which played out over decades, provide each human on earth access to superhuman competence & labor?-No.
There is no point considering any good when superhuman competence & labor could allow an endless number of maximally bad events. Some prankster is bound to create that suitcase containing 50 billion flying insect bots 200 micron in size, each carrying a 100 nanograms payload of botulism toxin.
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