2025-2029. It'll probably be guaranteed basic income that's implemented.

I'd say that's wildly optimistic, I'm curious to hear your reasoning though. American politics as it is now doesn't even account for basic human necessities of citizens, and I don't see automation gearing up to a point where they'd seriously consider UBI anytime soon. I'd be surprised if the U.S. implemented UBI before 2045.

2050+. The US will probably be one of the worst countries to live because of their "everything is communism" trauma. UBI will be rejected for that reason and probably any other help. Europe and LatinAmerica will have the fastest transitions to UBI based or similar economic systems. That's because most of the countries there already live in social democracies and don't have the american mindset. Bad side: UBI at 90%+ of the population will maybe end up being dictatorial.

Edit: grammar mistakes

Perhaps then it is contingent upon the rate of automation?

RK said UBI in 2030s with his old AGI (2030) prediction. He recently changed his prediction and said we will “most likely” get AGI before 2030 so logically, we could assume his UBI predictions gets bumped down to mid-late 2020s.

Exponential growth won't slow down; the accelerating technological progress that's been happening non-stop this year in the area of AI will soon lead to automation taking over literally all jobs, and by soon, I mean this decade, so some type of basic income has to be implemented (until the nanofactory is created, which will make money obsolete).

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2028 iykyk

>this decade

You told me a few weeks ago that you believe full automation would take place in the 2030s. You changed your mind in that time span?

Bad side: UBI at 90%+ of the population will maybe end up being dictatorial.

Kind of explains the American distaste for communism.

No offense but the way you write makes it seem as if you've seen the future and therefore know for sure what it holds and that comes off as very arrogant.

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Anything that isn't working you to literal death for pennies is sociism/communism/whatever other boogeyman to most people, so I imagine the US will be among the last of the countries to implement it.

I respectfully disagree. Using your comment to say why I am optimistic. Companies are still going to be making tons of money, nothing will change there once UBI is implemented. They just won’t need to rely on humans for workers anymore. They are likely going to lean into automation as a way for them to make even more money. Once an AI worker can do significantly more cost effective work then companies are going to widely adopt them. As long as UBI works in a way that allows companies do still profit then it will happen faster than people may think, I think around 2025-2030 makes sense. The US are actually very capable of doing this and they distributed everyone above 18 payments during COVID. It will surely depend on the administration though I don’t know which side will be pro or anti.

People are going to slowly become full time consumers (if all goes well). This is a reason IMO to be very excited about the future.

Fuck man, I really hope so. Keeping my fingers crossed.

Universal Basic Income needs to be coupled with Universal Maximum Wealth. That's the bit everyone is missing and that's the exact detail that will make our lives under UBI even worse.