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AdditionalPizza t1_itz5i2x wrote

I don't think there will be a huge relative difference between the generation or 2 of AI preceding AGI or the generations directly following it.

The proto-AGI will probably be claimed to be AGI and it will make headlines, but people will argue it isn't. However it will be more than general enough to displace a lot of jobs. Even AI long before it, 2023-2025 will be good enough to automate a lot of jobs with specific fine tuning, but it will take another generation of models before mass adoption by corporations takes place and deploying them, sometime between 2025 and 2027. Models are already working behind the scenes at the background of major companies like Netflix, meta, nvidia, Google, Amazon, you name it they're most likely using them. 2023 generations will start being used in non-tech focused companies in the background more. Healthcare breakthroughs will start to be realized by 2024/2025, but I can't speak to how long that will take to trickle down to the public.

When true AGI is created, there will still be people claiming it isn't AGI, but in hindsight we will confirm it. It will be murky though because even before AGI our models will be self improving themselves in increments. I think we might define AGI as the first model that doesn't require human intervention to train, or possibly the first model with a general agent in a capable robotic body.

I believe predictions beyond 2025/2026 are pretty much impossible to make at this point for the general public.

Everyone (myself included) keeps recycling this notion of creative and intellectual jobs going first because it doesn't neccissarily require robotics to replace but I think that's only partially true. Those jobs will see layoffs first and already have, but full automation requires robotics anyway. I think we were sort of wrong before in thinking labour and low skill jobs would go first. But I think we may not have been totally wrong. Or at least not by decades or anything.

Robotics is going to make massive strides after 2025, I don't know how quickly but I think 2025-2026 will be for robotics what 2022 was for language models. Probably after a couple more years robots with AI will be an expensive proposition, but ultimately worth it for large corporations to replace human workers with. I can't imagine predicting details about this though.

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