We are thinking very much in terms of western civilisation and the digitisation of modern living - which frankly needs to happen at some scale to reduce the resource requirements we place on the environment. However we also need to consider developing nations. The human race is not a conglomerate blob of humanity but people living in extreme luxury and extreme poverty and everything in between. For something like a conclusion to occur, you need to first have a convergence of living standards. This means either a convergence to everyone having a high standard of living and no wants, or a convergence to a low standard of living and many unfulfilled wants.

A convergence to a high standard of living is only likely where an AGI is centrally planning all aspects of life for humanity, it is non discriminant and does not favour current western economies as one life = one life. It will focus more resource onto developing nations to improve standards of living and only once we have a convergence can it then consider advancing humanity to a fully digitised mode of living. Western economies will likely resist such a scenario as it will make them relatively less powerful.

Alternatively it could take a view of capitalism and enriching those that control any AI, which will mean a greater divergence in living standards and significant imbalances in power that fully enshrine current power balances. In such a world you may have the extreme rich funnelling resources and wealth under their control and many living in poverty. It would mean the suppression of most of humanity and whilst the extreme rich may be able to live in a digital realm, the rest will only do so for escapism. The second scenario, majority are subsistence living and do not reach out to the stars and expand. The ultra rich may consider doing so, but their footprint is minimal and they have all wants met in a digital space and so no need to explore the physical universe. This is a collapse for 99.99% of humanity and servitude to the 0.01%. We’re probably close to this timeline.

Over time we also are pulling up the drawbridge for a neo-neolithic age to advance to current standards. Many of todays industries had to evolve through the stages of fossil fuel led production. In the future this won’t be an option available as any easily accessible fossil fuels would have been used up. Potentially neo-neolithic civilisation get stuck at the stage of hydroelectric power generation and struggles to advance beyond that. If the ultra rich do decide to leave us and explore the stars then the rest of humanity are stuck at low tech and this is what occurs throughout the galaxy (essentially the great filter is resource depletion). No one is looking up any more as they are scurrying in the dirt looking to use whatever has been left for them to fight over.