Danger-Dom t1_iwzilm1 wrote on November 19, 2022 at 3:59 PM

Reply to comment by nblack88 in My predictions for the next 30 years by z0rm

I think it depends on how well the AGI can optimize itself. If the AGI realizes we're doing AGI 10(00)x less efficient than is possible, deployment timeline will increase.

nblack88 t1_iwzjf97 wrote on November 19, 2022 at 4:05 PM

An increase is possible, and if all goes well, I expect it. It will still take time, unless we've dramatically increased the efficiency, scaling, and production of our various "hard" networks: Transportation, manufacturing, distribution, et al.

I hope by the time we have AGI and are ready to implement it in some/most aspects of society, we'll have these increases to facilitate the improvement.

Danger-Dom t1_ix0zqpj wrote on November 19, 2022 at 10:21 PM

Yeah I'm just talking about purely algorithmic improvements. So if we create an AGI on the worlds largest supercomputer. If it codes itself up 10x more efficient. Now there's 100s of computers that would be able to deploy the new AGI, and we're off to the races.

Unless, of course, it can't find improvements like that and then yeah you're right we'll have to wait around to build more supercomputers and make faster chips.

But overall I think still with the former situation it'd be a couple years before we started seeing large civilization wide gains from the AI and it's progeny. Not like a next day thing as people seem to think. But not 10 years either.