Agree mostly. One confounding variable is the coming recession may cut funding. I don't know how much gain we are getting from "singularity feedback". What this is as AGI gets closer, AGI subcomponents become advanced enough to speed up the progress towards AGI itself. As concrete examples, autoML is one and the transformer is another and mass ai accelerator compute boards is a third. Each of those is a component that a true AGI will have a more advanced version inside itself, and each speeds up progress.

The other form of singularity feedback as it becomes increasing obvious the AI is very near in calendar time, more money will be spent on it because of a higher probability of making ROI. You might have heard huggingface, a startup that duplicated openais work with stable diffusion but better, has a paper value of a billion dollars basically overnight.

This is similar to how as humanity got closer to a nuke multiple teams were trying in multiple countries.

Anyways if Singularity gain is say 2x, and funding gets cut to 1/4, then in 2023 we will see half progress.

Just as an example. If the gain is 10x the funding cut will be meaningless.

And obviously gain scales to well technically infinity though since the singularity is a physical process it will not be quite that high as the actual singularity happens, and presumably AGIs advance themselves and technology in lockstep until we hit the laws of physics.

That last phase would I guess be limited by energy input and the speed of computers.