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Cold_Baseball_432 t1_ix2ixzv wrote

Reply to comment by ChronoPsyche in is it ignorant for me to constantly have the singularity in my mind when discussing the future/issues of the future? by blxoom

The only paper I mention is the one estimating full brain emulation timelines.

What I wrote RE: microbes is a personal opinion/guess taking into account the fact that we’re warming much, much faster than the “official” projections, and pondering what the temperature increase tolerance of microbes critical to fix soil nutrients.

I would LOVE to hear what a microbiologist would have to say about this.

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ChronoPsyche t1_ix2j6ai wrote

I can assure you that not even the worst case predictions are that drastic. That's not to say that there aren't drastic worst case predictions out there, but none of them are predicting apocalypse. More like a world that is much less hospitable to humans (but still liveable). These impacts will be felt most extremely in developing countries, coastlines, and desert regions. But no, there won't be anything that deadly.

I'm no microbiologist, but I'm pretty sure that the amount of heat it takes to kill microbes would kill humans long before.

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Cold_Baseball_432 t1_ix2je2h wrote

I know they’re not. That’s what keeps me awake a night. Say the world warms +2-3° C by 2030. What do yyou think the soil microbe survival rate will be?

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ChronoPsyche t1_ix2jxsd wrote

So I did a quick Google search and it said that 140 degrees Fahrenheit (60 degrees Celsius) is necessary to kill soil microbes.

The hottest temperature ever recorded occurred in Death Valley at 134 degrees Fahrenheit in 1913.

So yeah, by 2030 maybe Death Valley will be reaching those temps but most of the world definitely won't. If they were, soil microbes would be the least of our worries.

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Cold_Baseball_432 t1_ix2kxaa wrote

Interesting. 140f for how long? I imagine this is for soil disinfection over a relatively short period of time.

I wonder what happens when the earth “bakes” at a (slightly) higher temp for an extended period of time? Does it create a pasteurizing effect? If it doesn’t kill microbes outright, how much could the higher avg temp affect metabolism?

In the case of one-shot high temps like in Death Valley that you mentioned, I imagine the top layer of microbes could get cooked but I would expect there’s probably “replenishment from a microbial reservoir deeper in the soil.

Do constant, slightly higher temps have effects that penetrate deeper? And will they penetrate deep enough to significantly damage microbial reservoirs?

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ChronoPsyche t1_ix2nlfo wrote

Those questions are beyond my quick Googling abilities lol. I think it's safe to say it's not a concern, though, as most places will not reach anywhere close to that temperature.

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