Well you can believe whatever you want but you're not basing those beliefs on anything substantive.

Honestly, the rate of progress since 2012 has been very slow. It's only in the past few years that things have picked up substantially and that was only because of recent breakthroughs with transformer models.

That's kind of how the history of AI progress has worked. We typically have breakthroughs that lead to a surge in progress that eventually plateaus and then stalls for a while as bottlenecks are reached and then eventually a new breakthrough is reached and there is another surge in progress.

It's not guaranteed there will be another plateau before AGI, but we're gonna need new breakthroughs to get there, because as I said, we are approaching bottlenecks with the current technology that will slow down the rate of progress.

That's not necessarily a bad thing, by the way. Our society isn't currently ready to handle AGI. It's good to have some time pass to actually integrate the new technology rather than developing it faster than we can even use it.