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rlanham1963 t1_iz1wg0l wrote

My general range is 5-10 years. Next year's breakthroughs are already prototyped and carry much greater secrecy, but I'll have a go. These are on or before end of 2023:

  1. Google will announce an entertainment division that will be mostly AI-based content.
  2. The US military will announce a completely crewless capital ship or submarine.
  3. CAR-T will become the fastest-growing treatment for cancer.
  4. Autonomous electric trucks will be fleet vehicles in mainline service with at least one mainline logistics company in Europe.
  5. Large-language model derivatives will cause a major rethink in the format and process of academic publishing across virtually all journals.
  6. A major nation--perhaps Korea or Japan or France will require all medical diagnostics to be reviewed by an AI.
  7. Trains will be produced to be driven without crews.
  8. Airbus will announce plans for an aircraft that will have no functioning flight crew--merely fall-back status for humans.
  9. NASA will announce plans to build a drone/robotic deep space station to facilitate trips to Mars and beyond.
  10. Humanoid robots will be used in policing.
  11. A full-length feature production will show at major movie theatres conceived, designed and made exclusively by AI.
  12. AI will write songs that enter the top 10 in sales--though performed by humans.
  13. AI will write a critically acclaimed novel.
  14. Most major car companies will announce their future is exclusively electric vehicles and that they will be largely on-demand autonomous by 2030.
  15. Governments will announce smart pylons that enable any device to know the exact time and location of the beacon signal from the pylons. These will become common place--perhaps on city light polls.
  16. Governments will announce smart pylons that enable any device to know the exact time and location of the beacon signal from the pylons. These will become commonplace--perhaps on city light polls.
  17. Universities will begin to reform teaching programs to drive costs lower by using at-home/AI methods to teach most basic STEM courses--e.g. Calculus, chemistry, physics, etc.
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__Simpleton__ t1_iz43w1b wrote

I can see these industries moving towards such direction, but when thinking of all the immensely bureaucratic processes needed for these to happen, I would say half a decade is a good, albeit not an optimistic estimate

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razorbeamz t1_iz3sjjp wrote

Number 6 seems really far fetched to me. Maybe they might encourage it but I can't see them requiring it.

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PrivateLudo t1_izgoek0 wrote

I really hope 6 is true. I think AI would be the best thing to happen in the medical field. Unfortunately, humans are just too flawed to be doctors imo. They make a lot of mistakes and can misdiagnose pretty often. Also the first few seems plausible but the second half is way too far-fetched imo

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