This is weak bait. Look at this guy's account.

This is my first post on Reddit. I have been reading this sub for a while, and really like it. I am excited about the singularity. But I am also interested in putting it in the right perspective.

>for centuries or millennia

Pffff.... you'll see that production of robots will double every 2 years. Robot shipments are currently doubling every 2 years. That's 1000x more robots (all kinds) produced in 2042 than in 2022. Of course robots will do stuff instead of us in 40 years. That's for sure. Even Kurzweil was recently asked that question and he answered that robotics will see a lot of development and improvement over the next 10 years and he's correct about that. See Agility Robotics for an example. There are agricultural and harvesting robots being deployed already. Do you know that for example modern ports are full of robots taking care of shipping containers? And robots change and recharge batteries of the wheeled robots.

Would be great! I am just thinking at my electrician anyway... the amount of smooth and fine actions he performs.. the level of dexterity in new environments.. the many tools he carries.. Its hard for me to believe that in all houses, in all cities, everywhere, where now work daily thousands, millions of people, will be substituted by an army of walking robots drilling walls, filling pipes with wires, and so on... in just few decades.

Would be great! I am just thinking at my electrician anyway... the amount of smooth and fine actions he performs.. the level of dexterity in new environments.. the many tools he carries.. Its hard for me to believe that in all houses, in all cities, everywhere, where now work daily thousands, millions of people, will be substituted by an army of walking robots drilling walls, filling pipes with wires, and so on... in just few decades.

I'll take up a new career as a zoo animal in the human zoo.

Some people had a hard time to imagine how would average person use personal computers at home.

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True, and I perfectly know. I cant predict the future. But I still find it hard to believe that in 40 years there will be millions/billions of highly skilled robots (not in terms of knowledge, but of physical dexterity) replacing all human jobs. Its knowledge jobs that are going to be taken over in my opinion.

Automation can lead to really fast build up of millions of robots. We only need to make first that works and is cheap to produce.

The future is wireless… no wires no electricians

who will install my oven? my lightnings? my air conditioning system?......

Automation has already gone very far.

Maybe no one will serve in coffee bars as you will just serve yourself, just as it is already done with grocery shopping (here in Germany increasingly). Maybe plumbing will be improved in a way that will not need much maintenance - or what about self-maintenance systems?

look at the boston dynamics android vs the tesla optimus. creating a robot that can perform physical tasks is far from impossible. creating a fleet of robots to replace all the physical tasks done in a nationwide economy is economically infeasible.

the key distinction is which sector of labor is more scarce. if knowledge work in a digital world is scarce, there's more incentive (i.e. investment) to deploy software at scale. if robotics manufacturing in a physical world is scarce, there's more incentive to stockpile the limiting reagent (usually the chips & minerals).

in terms of timeframe, robotics intelligence is accelerating rapidly. look at RT-1, for example. it's clear that the public domain has already adopted the means to operate robotics, at a hobbyist level, on a global scale. there are a plethora of youtube videos demonstrating this. I suspect that RT will be iterated enough within 5 years to include the capability of self-reproduction. by that point it will not be economically infeasible for independent actors with enough capital to procure their own self-assembling factories with one ML model. the limiting factor will be the raw resources for manufacturing enough robotics to do the physical labor of a given niche.

within 10 years there will be a ML model that convincingly operates an android that instructs/outperforms humans in basic physical tasks. that's the trajectory we're on. it is likely that within 20 years, even specialized physical tasks will be done by android-operating models. before then, I suspect that there is a point of no return with androids playing televised sports. by then the form factor will be a nonissue for industrial purposes.

I am not saying we' ll never reach that point. But I am wondering if robotics (not talking about ai) will reach that level and will be widespread in only few decades. We are far away from that at the moment (Roombas can only move in two directions, talking about existing widespread technology).

I have already noticed that this subreddit prefers older accounts. Do you think this is a good tactic?

great explanation, thanks. this is what I was thinking about. I see everybody talks about ai, but robotics is a different game and I dont read many qualified discussions about it in this singularity subredddit. Most people looks like thinking: when we will have agi, the next day all jobs will be gone.

look at the Atlas robot from Boston Dynamics, it is almost there dexterity wise already.

do you see a world populated by millions of atlas kind of robots in the near future?