Submitted by shmoculus t3_zztarn in singularity
AndromedaAnimated t1_j2dh20r wrote
Very good questions!
My prediction is that UBI will not be implemented world-wide instantly. Europe will probably try to do it first as there is already some intent present to implement it in politics. The stress here is on TRY. Not on it being successful.
Why am I a bit pessimistic on it? Because I have been watching the political debate about Bürgergeld (a low-grade version of UBI) going on in Germany and seen the idea being torn to shreds by the PUBLIC opinion itself due to resentment, jealousy, scarcity politics and misunderstood Christian values (misunderstood, I say, not actual real Christian values!!!). Even my most leftist friends are against it mostly.
UBI is a big political change that needs a change in morals/ethics first.
As long as „working“ is conflated with „being a good person“, people will oppose UBI morally.
Tip_Odde t1_j2eo2ed wrote
Each generation sees working being tied to your being a good person less and less.
ElvinRath t1_j2dxk5t wrote
It's not that much about morals or ethics as it is about work being needed or not.
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Lot's of people like to day that poverty is a political choice because if we split the wealth there would be no poverty. It doesn't work that way. Now, I'm not saying that we couldn't have a better / more fair / world with less poverty.
But wealth itself doesn't mean much. Wealth is usually representative of control over production means, and if you try to use that wealth from ownership of production means into consuption, it's value is much less.
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And right now, if people don't work, there is no production. Just imagine what would happend if no human works. One year later, (almost) everybody dies.
The day that you can imagine that if no humans work (or 90% of them don't work) one year later everything is still good (and better) , that's when we can talk about UBI and no one will oppose it.
I'm also not saying that you can't have some kind of social protection.
In my country there is already a "minimum mensual income" program. It's quite low, but it already covers around 6% of the active population (People with age to work). It is expected to cover about 8% soon.
Even with that it's a bit of a problem, and some people say it discourages employment, because people it takes time to ask for it, and if you get it and you get a job, and then loose it, you have to ask for it again.. It could be organized a lot better, but well, it's something. There is also people against it becase they say that given that you can take that for doing nothing, it's starting to become harder to get people to accept low wage jobs... Well, as I said this minimum income is quite low so the effect is also quite low.
AndromedaAnimated t1_j2e7n8a wrote
I would want to work (in my profession which I love, not necessarily in my current well-paid but morally questionable - in my opinion right now - job, and that is why I plan to return to academia instead of continuing doing what I do now; sometimes people need time to realise they are fighting for the wrong side and I needed lots of time for that sadly).
The work we shouldn’t want to be necessary is exploitative and underpaid work. I am not arguing that laziness is the way to go.
Humans are curious and creative creatures. Imagine a world where all menial and physically or mentally damaging work could be done by robots (non-sentient ones) and planned and supervised by humans or AI. A world where humans could pursue their creative endeavours, use their brains to plan and supervise or care for other humans or contribute to research as work. Wouldn’t that be a good world?
ElvinRath t1_j2e8und wrote
Yes, and I hope to see it someday, but we don't have the tech to have that job. For now...
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I'm not speaking against UBI, automation, or against "people not working", I'm saying that it isn't possible right now, and that's not about ethics or moral, it's just that the technology is not yet there.
AndromedaAnimated t1_j2e9dsc wrote
I see! Yes, your argument is valid in this case. You are not one of those who see amorality in wanting to establish UBI. I am glad to read that. Thank you!
SoulGuardian55 t1_j2en2kr wrote
What you and other people described on this sub as whole is technically socialism (maybe just around the corner of communism), where people flesh out our inner potential, pushing our society to new heights.
SoylentRox t1_j2f7o9e wrote
Why is your threshold 90%?
One reasonable way it could happen is that gradually AI and robotics starts to replace everyone in generally the easier jobs to learn.
So working in mines, as assembly workers in factories, as vehicle drivers, as warehouse pickers..these jobs will go first.
There are still plenty of jobs but they all require education/talent/physical characteristics. There's plenty of doctors - though they use AI to help them they still oversee it - and therapists. There are more SWEs than ever but you have to pass a test of talent to get the job. There are obviously many sex workers and webcam models but you have to be young and hot.
It's totally reasonable that it might be 10-50% of the population who are not employable for a period of time, until AI get substantially better.
SoylentRox t1_j2f5461 wrote
Surely people will change their tunes when there's no jobs available, right?
I don't know how it is in Germany, but in the USA, the combination of early retirements partly driven by covid, and generational differences in the number of children have reduced the number of workers. There's pretty much a labor shortage in every industry. Anyone without a criminal record or major disability can probably easily get a job. (I won't say this is necessarily true nationwide but in high and medium living cost areas it is)
AndromedaAnimated t1_j2fdp4v wrote
It’s the same here. Employee search notices everywhere. But the people in the workforce AND the employers still pretend like it’s the jobs that are scarce and not the workers and the wages have not improved much beside the government-imposed minimum wage policy. It’s still hard to get a well-paid job and people are still being treated badly in their work environment. It’s the mind that needs to change. The market will follow.
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