Yes we must look at what we have available now to make sensible predictions about the future.

Replica is utter garbage. Doesn't remember two messages before, and is generally very unimpressive. Character.AI is better in every single way, it is way more convincing, remembers a lot from your convos, many times it simulates a human's curiosity and unpredictability correctly.

However, it is still very much clear that you're speaking with an AI, sometimes they'll say stuff that makes no sense AND it's easily tricked by the classic phrases like "What colour was Napoleon's white horse?" answer: "I don't know much about Napoleon so I can't answer". On top of that, the developers implemented very strict censorship so even if the model is the absolute best at simulating NSFW, its mouth is literally forced shut from the ouside.

But our friend is asking for a cure for loneliness, not a quick wank. For that, a couple of prompting tricks will have me have fun with Hu Tao's toes in seconds. But for true companionship we require much more.

For that, the AI needs to remember everything we tell it and NEVER forget it, or at least be smart enough to know what stuff is important and must be remembered. This may be a decade away for all we know. Also, the human mind works in funny ways, many times the mere scarcity and difficulty of finding love gives value to the love we find. It is entirely possible that no matter how advanced AI gets, many people may never fall for it, because they know if they ever do or say the wrong thing they can just hit the reset button and start again, that alone may make them look at AI partners as worthless and just another sex toy.

That said, looking at how fast the sector is moving, a convincing AI partner might be ready in 10 years.

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Edit: and we mustn't forget that speech recognition and quickness to answer must be improved upon a LOT. Right now the best speech recognition still needs at least one or two seconds to catch up. We need it to be near instant. And the bot must be able to respond quickly and to have a credible human like voice complete with emotions, though great strides were achieved on these things lately.