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Sashinii t1_izujqp3 wrote

Reply to comment by Rumianti6 in Just today someone posted a Twitter thread about Nuclear Fusion... by natepriv22

I've said many times on this subreddit that I think AGI will be here in the 2020's and ASI will follow in 2030, which I think now more than ever, and that's thanks to the start of a new industrial revolution, so progress will accelerate faster than even I think it will.

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Imaginary_Ad307 t1_izupouk wrote

Like you I am expecting AGI in the 2020's but ASI would be simultaneously or a couple of months after.

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Rumianti6 t1_izukq5m wrote

You actually believe in the myth of exponential progression? The truth is that technological progression is linear and might have some faster occasional bumps in progress.

ASI in 2030 is just ridiculous, it is almost 2023. Not even a decade away. Someone really needs to do their research.

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SamGanji t1_izum39c wrote

You think the progression from the beginning of the 20th century to where we are now is not exponential in the scope of human history? That's the definition of exponential.

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Apollo24_ t1_izuv39l wrote

It's not even just about the 20th century or about humans, it's the entire history of the universe.

13.8 billion years ago - the big bang

4.5 billion years ago - earth was formed

3.5 billion years ago - cellular life emerges

2.1 billion years ago - multicellular life emerges

500 million years ago - cambrian explosion

178 million years ago - first mammals appear

55 million years ago - first primates appear

1.5 million years ago - homo habilis

200 thousand years ago - homo sapiens

70 thousand years ago - cognitive revolution

12 thousand years ago - neolithic revolution

500 years ago - scientific revolution

200 years ago - first industrial revolution

100 years ago - second industrial revolution

50 years ago - third indusrial revolution

Next up - fourth industrial revolution (AI revolution)

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Sashinii t1_izun14e wrote

There are graphs showing that exponential growth is real; Ray Kurzweil shows them in his books and presentations.

I've been thinking about compiling all of those graphs into a thread just so the information is readily available, so I should stop being lazy and make that thread.

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AsuhoChinami t1_izusoy0 wrote

Rumianiti6 is a fucking moron. My block list is becoming so long thanks to the idiots on this sub.

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Shelfrock77 t1_izuvb2i wrote

Ask the World Economci Forum about exponential progress. They literally talk about what they are going to do for the “4th industrial revolution” aka the singularity.

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Rumianti6 t1_izwizi8 wrote

Wait, aren't you the local joke of this subreddit? Nothing you say is anywhere near logical or true. There will be a 4th industrial revolution but it will not be the singularity.

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Yoshbyte t1_izuz26t wrote

Technology is exponential. Every major breakthrough is a period following core inventions. The steam engine is a super obvious example but there are tons, you can point at things like calculus and see the insane speed of in specifically linked areas also

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