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CypherLH t1_j26kj86 wrote

Reply to comment by SurroundSwimming3494 in For those of you who expect AI progress to slow next year: by Foundation12a

One could argue that we DID see more progress in 2022 than in the previous 10 years IF you just consider the subjective capabilities/functions added in 2022 that literally didn't exist previously. Nothing remotely close to Dalle 2 existed prior to 2022, and we now have multiple rapidly improving image generation models alongside Dalle 2. Same for large language models, GPT "3.5" is just a massive improvement over anything previously publicly available, including previous GPT-3 releases. chatGPT is just a further evolution on that "GPT-3.5" line of LLM's.

I get that these new subjective capabilities came as a result of just iterative improvements on develops ongoing since 2011/2012...but again if you just look at subjective capabilities....2022 saw MASSIVE gains.

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shmoculus t1_j28yfux wrote

I kind of see what you are getting at, and it could be the case with exponential improvements in methods/research that we see more discoveries in one year than all the previous at some point but I don't think we're there yet.

The progression has been linear in my view:

  1. Efficient image classification (CNNs)

  2. object detection / segmentation / pix2pix / basic img2text models (RCNNs, Unet, GANs)

  3. Deep reinforcement learning (DQN, PPO, MCTS)

  4. Attention networks (transformers and language modelling)

  5. Basic question / answer and reasoning models

  6. Low quality txt2img models (e.g. DALL-E 1)

  7. High quality txt2img models (e.g. DALL-E 2, stable diffusion)

  8. Multimodal modals (image understading etc) <- we are here

  9. Already happening video2video models, text2mesh / point cloud

  10. Expect low, then high quality multimodal generation models e.g. txt2video + music

  11. Expect improved text understanding, general chat behaviour, ie large step ups in chatbot usefulness inclution ability to take actions (this part is already underway)

  12. Expect some kind of attention based method for reading and writing to storage (i.e memory) and possibly online learning / continuous improvement

13 . More incrementally interesting stuff :)

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CypherLH t1_j2b0ncx wrote

"Linear" but consider how rapidly the last half of your points progressed! It took nearly a decade to go from step 1 to step 6. In then took 18 months to go from step 6 to step 9, and probably less than another 12 months to get to step 11 based on current rates of progress.

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shmoculus t1_j2byyzm wrote

It's going to be an interesting decade for sure :)

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