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TemetN t1_j0qzrb3 wrote

Improbable. I've increasingly come around to the view that the integration of narrow AI into R&D is the form building blocks of the singularity will take. Contrastingly, while I expect AGI by the middle of the decade, I think it's more likely to be along the weak definition (ala Metaculus or its historical meaning). What this means is we're likely to see a gradual increase in the pace of technological advancement, but it's likely to start in parallel to AGI.

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96suluman OP t1_j0rbwca wrote

I think it will be between 2023 (yes really, one person wants to do it next year) and 2060

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TemetN t1_j0rdzzr wrote

I've tried to game out a long time line, and it just doesn't work. Even presuming a horribly destructive world war, or running into a yet unseen bottleneck, I can't game out anything close to that. The problem for assuming such a thing is that just what's been individually shown to date indicates we should reach AGI shortly. So while I could see it being delayed to later in the decade, anything past that seems like a one percent or less situation.

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