Submitted by tiny9000 t3_10ozzqp in singularity
IncredibleWaddleDee t1_j6hz2sm wrote
It is contradictory to expect an age of abundance. You cannot create energy, you can only transform it. And transforming energy is costly in.... energy! We have been using fossil fuels to fuel everything we do since we discovered them, without any other energy source being a viable replacement for most of our society. Fossil fuels come from hundreds of thousands of years of natural work to condense energy into a flammable fuel. Our tools are made from elements that come from dying stars that have accumulated in mines over millions of years. Our tools of exploitation (ressources gathering), transport and transformation are mostly fueled by fossil fuels across the world. Nothing in our world is sustainable, and the proof is that we have built our economy on a hundred years of ressource wars, human slavery (outsourcing) and the same fossil fuels we first discovered.
How can you create abundance when right now we are unable to share equally the outputs of our systems? Especially since we have passed out peak in petrol, and in tight petrol. Also we have passed our peaks or we will soon pass it in a lot of critical mineral resources. Finally the whole agricultural sector now relies on the engineering of nitrate, which relies on fossil fuels again. Construction also relies on fossil fuels because petrol is a key ingredient in our infrastructure.
There are very few viable alternatives which an AI can exploit to preserve growth (especially since growth is a mathematical function and not a physical reality in economics).
Solar and wind rely on fossil fuels to build and to maintain. They also have a life span so they have to be replaced (as do any electrical infrastructure). Nuclear is more long-term in matter of output but it requires A LOT of fossil fuels to start the machine, so any new facility should start it's construction ASAP. Even then it's limited in it's usage compared to fossil fuels, which litterally power our boats and planes. Fusion is this problem exponentiated. Fusion takes humungous ammounts of power to collect the energy stored in molecules. And even then to collect enough energy to power itself and create a kind of "cascade effect" where there's some extra energy in the output is, first of all kinda dreamy since energy cannot be created and second, alien tech. Or it's technology from the far future. Idk sounds ridiculous to me to expect it to solve everything since it was the same discourse everyone said about anything after petrol and no one was right about it... Nothing replaced petrol yet. We just added over it, in a complementary-ish way...
So yeah, AI is coming (if it's not here yet). Abundance? I don't think so. The opposite even. Worldwide famines and wars.
EDIT : wording
tiny9000 OP t1_j6i0v6n wrote
in terms of energy generation, we are not far away from achieving commercial nuclear fusion and there’s plenty of nuclear fission power plants we can build. Fossil fuels are not the end all be all
IncredibleWaddleDee t1_j6i5yiq wrote
How... To cause ignition in fusion facilities we need an enormous facility with tools that measure many soccer fields. In what world in the current era do you see it feasible that gathering all the materials needed + starting the process of ignition + capturing enough energy + maintenance = more energy output than energy input. Fusion relies heavily (very heavily) on fossile fuels right now. And it requires a lot of mineral resources that are in a process of rarification.
In what world is it possible to have more energy out than in? Maybe in the far far future but right now?? And even then, maybe you could create one or two functioning facilities in this century in North America or in Europe. Let's say we were to develop a functional energy-producing facility that outputs more usable (for us) energy than it inputs... How do you see the scaling of this as realistic? By then we probably would be in worldwide shortages of fossil fuels (affecting food supplies and everything related to growth) and we would be facing shortages in critical mineral resources...
Unless you tell me that we are gonna have mastery over recycling of minerals (which feels very unrealistic) we are facing a wall with this solution. Like maybe a few cities might have a power grid supported by fusion but I cannot fathom an upcoming world powered by it...
EDIT : grammar
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