Submitted by alfredo70000 t3_10psznd in singularity
From this I assume that, at least, the Turing Test will be passed by 2029 (one of the main predictions of Ray Kurzweil).
I would suggest “passing Turing test” could be better understood as passing Turing test 50% of the time (or 70 or 90%) by 50% of people.
In that case, we could argue chatGPT is close to the mark already.
That's my thought as well. Though it could mean that the AI could pass the Turing test "continuously". Changing topics and returning to previous topics without any oddities occurring.
Because yeah, a properly pre-prompted ChatGPT without hard topic limits (so no "I'm afraid I can't do that" moments) put against an unaware subject could definitely fool a lot of people for at least a short conversation.
I feel like a true capital P "Pass" of the Turing test would be something like a model that can be provided with a persona, background data and history (or come up with one on the fly), and carry on a conversation consistent with that persona of arbitrary length with a subject believing them to be human.
And then, be able to have that same subject come back on a following day, and be able to continue conversing with the model in a manner consistent with time having passed in the life of the simulated persona.
Even if there were still some limitations that would be the point where I'd pretty much consider conversational AI a "solved" problem, since it would just be a matter of degrees. Where you can have something like an AI assistant provide a consistent experience of "Personhood" (even if that person is an AI).
By the time that problem is solved though we will almost certainly be capable of making multimodal Psuedo-AGIs work at the very least. So it's hard to say how many years it will talk to solve the problems with current models preventing this capability.
I agree with you.
I believe the Turing test is or quickly will be achieved.
The question is what comes between that and true AGI and between AGI and singularity.
I believe some version of self improving AI will have to come first before anything else.
We are close IMO, once it can produce Python/Cuda/VDHL code better than the 10-20% best percentile, magic will happen…
Didn't we already pass that? At least in the text generation front
turing test is not a sufficient test and people can't be the judge, people are easily fooled. but i doubt it'll take that long from where we are.
What? Do you mean that we have to put a machine to test if another machine is smarter than a human?
turing never thought of this test as a human talking to a machine to see if it's smart.
he had the intelligence problem in mind and thought of state machines that are turing complete could become generally intelligent just like humans.
and if we're talking about that kind of general intelligence, i don't think we will get that by 2029, but what do i know.
Ray Kurzweil recently said he thinks it will probably happen a little before 2029 at the rate of process he's seeing, although, there are still some issues to be addressed like AI doesn't understand chains of reasoning and math very well yet but he says there are ideas of how to solve that.
as much as i admire ray, i don't think he has a say in when we will get it. there are a few million dollar problems to solve before we solve the intelligence problem. but that's just my view, nobody has to agree or disagree, i just urge everyone to look into it.
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