Viewing a single comment thread. View all comments

t1_j4ujwb1 wrote

Probably not too far off. The consumer grade AI that you and I will have access to will be cool and keep getting more powerful...but the full unshackled and unthrottled models that are only available in the upper echelons will probably be orders of magnitude more powerful and robust. And they'll use the consumer grade AI as fodder for training the next generation AI's as well, so we'll be paying for access to consumer grade AI but we'll also BE "the product" in the sense that all of our interactions with consumer grade AI will go into future AI training and of course data profiling and whatnot. This is presumably already happening with GPT-3 and chatGPT and the various image generation models, etc. This is kind of just an extension of what has been happening already, with larger corporations and organizations leveraging their data collection and compute to gain advantage....AI is just another step down that path and probably a much larger leap in advantage.

And I don't see anyway to avoid this unless we get opensource models that are competitive with MS, Google, etc. This seems unlikely since the mega corporations will always have access to vastly larger amounts of compute. Maybe the compute requirements will decline relative to hardware costs once we get fully optimized training algorithms and inference software. Maybe GPT-4 equivalent models will be running on single consumer GPU's by 2030 (of course the corps and governments will by then have access to GPT-6 or whatever....unless we hit diminishing returns on these models.

3

t1_j4vtc49 wrote

> And they'll use the consumer grade AI as fodder for training the next generation AI's as well, so we'll be paying for access to consumer grade AI but we'll also BE "the product" in the sense that all of our interactions with consumer grade AI will go into future AI training and of course data profiling and whatnot.

Ya, this is a good point....I don't understand the technology enough to have a feel for how true this may be, but my intuition is very strong that this is exactly what will be the case....so in a sense, not only will some people have access to more powerful, uncensored models, those models will also have an extra, compounding advantage in training. And on top of it, I would expect that the various three latter agencies in the government will have ~full access to the entirety of OpenAI and others' work, but will also be secretly working on extensions to that work. And what's OpenAI going to do, say no?

> And I don't see anyway to avoid this unless we get opensource models that are competitive with MS, Google, etc.

Oh, I fully expect we will luckily have access to open source models, and that they will be ~excellent, and potentially uncensored (though, one may have to run their compute on their own machine - expensive, but at least it's possible). But, my intuition is that the "usable" power of a model is many multiples of its "on paper" superiority.

All that being said: the people have (at least) one very powerful tool in their kit that the government/corporations do not: the ability to transcend the virtual reality[1] that our own minds have been trained on. What most people don't know is that the mind itself is a neural network of sorts, and that it is (almost constantly) trained starting at the moment one exits the womb, until the moment you die. This is very hard to see[2] , but once it is seen, one notices that everything is affected by it.

I believe that this is the way out, and that it can be implemented...and if done adequately correctly, in a way that literally cannot fail.

May we live in interesting times lol


[1] This "virtual reality" phenomenon has been known of for centuries, but can easily be hidden from the mind with memes.

See:

https://www.vedanet.com/the-meaning-of-maya-the-illusion-of-the-world/

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Allegory_of_the_cave

[2] By default, the very opposite seems to be true - and, there are hundreds of memes floating around out there that keep people locked into the virtual reality dome that has been slowly built around them throughout their lifetime, and at an accelerated rate in the last 10-20 years with the increase in technical power and corruption[3] in our institutions.

[3] "Corruption" is very tricky: one should be very careful presuming that what may appear to be a conspiracy is not actually just/mostly simple emergence.

1