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madvanillin t1_j6f8kep wrote

Reply to comment by [deleted] in OpenAI has hired an army of contractors to make basic coding obsolete by Buck-Nasty

The skeptics of AI have been losing hard the past several years. GPT4 is due out this year. We'll probably have GPT5 by 2026. GPT5 will likely be the first true AGI. We're almost certainly looking at self-improving ASI before the end of this decade. If I were a high school senior right now, I'd be looking into learning a trade, and preparing for robots to take my job in the next 20 or so years. People who work from desks will be replaced first. Not all desk jobs are going away in 10 years, but most of them will.

My big question is what the wealthy and powerful will do with us when a workforce of billions of people is no longer needed to sustain their desired lifestyles. Right now, rich people need poor and middle class people to do work for them, and design and create and build things for them. Then those people need millions more working to supply their needs, educate their children, and so on. But when rich people no longer need poor and middle class people to keep them luxury, they could just exterminate us. I'm hoping they'll give us a basic income in exchange for voluntary sterilization. But I believe the desire to prevent environmental disasters and stop the anthropocene extinction will motivate them to drastically reduce the number of humans on earth.

Maybe ASI will be too clever, too powerful, and too kind to allow them to continue their lives of extraordinary luxury. Maybe it will eliminate ideas like wealth and trade, and give us a star-trek-style post-scarcity world. Idk.

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Ok_Homework9290 t1_j6fq2n6 wrote

>GPT4 is due out this year.

OpenAI's CEO said they're planning on holding on it to it much longer than most techies would like, so I wouldn't be surprised if it wasn't released this year.

>GPT5 will likely be the first true AGI. We're almost certainly looking at self-improving ASI before the end of this decade.

Doubt it. That will probably come out at some point later this decade, and I doubt we'll get AGI that quick. The vast majority of AI/ML experts expect it come later than this decade, with most expecting it to arrive in 2050+.

>If I were a high school senior right now, I'd be looking into learning a trade, and preparing for robots to take my job in the next 20 or so years. People who work from desks will be replaced first. Not all desk jobs are going away in 10 years, but most of them will.

Learning a trade is awesome and a good idea, but I don't think its trade or bust (in regards to choosing something to learn/study after high school), because I don't think that most desk jobs will have been automated in 10 years.

Knowledge work (in general) is a lot more than just crunching numbers, shuffling papers, etc. Anybody who works in a knowledge-based field (or is familiar with a knowledge-based field) knows this.

AI that's capable of fully replacing what a significant amount of knowledge workers do is still pretty far out, IMO, given how much human interaction, task variety/diversity, abstract thinking, precision, etc. is involved in much of knowledge work (not to mention legal hurdles, adoption, etc).

Will some of these jobs dissappear over the next 10 years? 100%. There's no point in even denying that, nor is there any point in denying that much of the rest of knowledge work will undoubtedly change over the next time span and even more so after that, but I'm pretty confident we're a ways away from it being totally disrupted by AI.

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