just-a-dreamer- t1_j3dvnqw wrote on January 7, 2023 at 9:40 PM

Reply to comment by DukkyDrake in A more realistic vision of the AI & Programmer's jobs story by DukkyDrake

Honestly, I wouldn't bother about the lower classes for they will always get crushed economicly, at least that's what history shows. A sad reality of life, I wish it were different.

The problem is not the homeless in my opinion, but college graduates from middle class background. What will happen when 50% of college graduates don't find a job within 5 years? How will all these young ambitious 20 something react?

China has put down mass demonstrations of students in 1989 with military force. It was not the lower classes that caused trouble, it was students and college graduates.

Interesting times ahead, I think governments will expand to absorb some of the surplus labor to keep enough people loyal and calm.

DukkyDrake OP t1_j3e8p5k wrote on January 7, 2023 at 11:08 PM

There are no special people, future homeless are just college grads without a job after their parents are no longer able to make their own house payments. No different than the reasons why there are currently doctors and PhDs driving taxis in Cuba. Degrees are only valuable if someone with capital values such qualifications.

>governments will expand to absorb some of the surplus labor to keep enough people loyal and calm

Why spend money on "make work" when gov can mitigate their future college grad uprising by ensuring ample supply of cheap drugs and video games.

Best to be stable before things goes south. This is all just idle speculation; everything could easily turn out just fine. No real way to know where things are headed. I usually bet on and prepare for the default outcome, what will happen if there are no special actions taken to ameliorate foreseen difficulties. That's usually the cheapest option at any given moment for gov, do nothing and hope the problem goes away.

just-a-dreamer- t1_j3ef3uq wrote on January 7, 2023 at 11:52 PM

Well, I have read demographic data that is at cross purpose with the fears about AI automation.

Apparantly China has a gigantic problem with aging population, as do many other countries in southeast asia.

The US and europe also face problems. I don't know, maybe AI automation will come just in time to save the day as more and more people are about to retire.

Or maybe all countries are in trouble. Depends how deep and fast the transformation happens and how governments will react.

DukkyDrake OP t1_j3fi7n6 wrote on January 8, 2023 at 4:47 AM

We are approaching the age where the problem will be "what to do with legions of unwanted workers that serve no useful function". The problem of "not enough young workers and consumers" is only a problem if the timing is wrong. If AI isn't reliable enough to function in the real world in the next 20-30 years, that probably means it's a much harder nut to crack than assumed and it's not going to be solved before that demographic prob becomes a massive drag on global GDP.