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imlaggingsobad t1_j3oyoyq wrote

Your prediction and the 2027 prediction could both be right. DeepMind and OpenAI could have something that looks like AGI in 2027, but they keep it within the lab for another 3 years just testing it and building safeguards. Then in the 30s they go public with it and it begins proliferating. Then maybe it takes 10 years for it to transform manufacturing, agriculture, robotics, medicine, and the wider population, etc, due to regulation, ethical concerns, and resource limits.

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Baturinsky t1_j3s0gpp wrote

How big do you think are chances it going Paperclip Maximizer-level wrong?

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