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coumineol t1_j3r24vc wrote

Reply to comment by keefemotif in "Community" Prediction for General A.I continues to drop. by 420BigDawg_

In that case maybe educated opinion is worse than the wisdom of the crowds, as the community prediction for AGI was 2040 last year as you can see from the post which is not "10 years away".

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keefemotif t1_j3rsn2g wrote

It's 18, the point I'm making is we have a cognitive bias towards 10-20 years or so when making estimates and we also have a difficult time understanding nonlinearity.

The big singinst hypothesis was there would be a "foom" moment where we go to super exponential progression. From that point of view, you would have to start talking probability distribution of when that nonlinearity happens.

I prefer stacked sigmoidal distributions, where it goes exponential for a while, hits some limit (think Moore's and around 8nm)

Training a giant neural net towards language models is a very important development, but I mean imho AlphaGo was more interesting technically with the combination of value and policy networks, vs billions of nodes in some multilayer net.

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