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tatleoat t1_j3r8a33 wrote

Reply to comment by HeinrichTheWolf_17 in "Community" Prediction for General A.I continues to drop. by 420BigDawg_

All the experts I've seen say 2029, like Altman and Carmack. Musk has also said 2029 if that's an opinion you care about.

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joecunningham85 t1_j3romoc wrote

"All the experts"

Altman is a CEO with a vested interested in hyping up AI progress for his business.

Musk said we would be on Mars and having self-driving cars take us everywhere by now lol.

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tatleoat t1_j3rpi30 wrote

I don't see how saying "[thing] will come in 7 years" influences anything as a prediction, it's too far away to generate any tangible hype in the public. If he was going to lie to manipulate a products value I'd think I'd make my predictions something more near term, if we're indeed cynically manipulating the market. Not to mention any of that about Sam Altman changes nothing about the fact he's an expert and his credibility rests on his correctness, it's in his interest to be right. You can't just claim biased interests here, it's more nuanced than that, also none of that changes the fact they all are saying the same thing, 2029. That's pretty consistent, and I'm inclined to believe it.

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maskedpaki t1_j3tcteo wrote

you have it all backwards

generating long term hype is perfect for a tech startup for 2 reasons

  1. it overvalues the company based on long term potential. open ai only makes 60m in revenue. standard 10x multiplier would have it valued at 600m at the most. but its valued at 30 billion because of the hope that revenues will billions in the future

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  1. you dont have to keep your long term promises. if he makes a promise for gpt4 people will call him out when it fails. but saying AGI 2035 and chances are no one will care when its 2035 and he doesnt deliver since the whole field will be different by then.
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