Viewing a single comment thread. View all comments

Artanthos t1_j3rz1wf wrote

Reply to comment by Ortus14 in Do you think in the 2030s it will be common for most households to have a 3D printer? by BeginningInfluence55

Most desk jobs, but not all.

There are things people won’t want automated, even if the technology allows it.

This holds particularly true for government. Not only do most people not want to be governed by machines, government in general lags decades behind in software adoption.

2

Ortus14 t1_j3t351g wrote

Oh yes... and government will lag behind the private sector as always lol!

That is unless the Ai politicians make the rational decision to upgrade to increase efficacy and reduce costs.

Ai could potentially be more charismatic, funny, likable, and convincing than humans, and not only convince us to give them some legal rights but also to run for and win against humans in elections. Potentially it has the possibility of shifting the culture making robot/ai discrimination a bannable offence and illegal in some countries. I'm not sure when this will happen. Intuitively it feels a long way off, maybe 2060s or 2070s.

So my bet would be the same as yours, that government jobs will mostly still be safe by the end of the 2030s.

1

Artanthos t1_j3tyf9l wrote

AI doesn’t meet the legal requirements to hold political office.

Past a certain level, those requirements include citizenship and age and are defined by the Constitution.

Changing those requirements would be extraordinarily difficult and would have to be signed off on by three different supermajorities . Supermajorities that would personally be adversely affected.

1

crua9 t1_j46cwqp wrote

>AI doesn’t meet the legal requirements to hold political office.

You forget laws aren't written in stone. They change ALL the time.

​

I think what will happen is an AI will be used as an advisor at first. Something a human political person can ask questions and get solutions from. At first it most likely is a flip of a coin, but assuming if the system is built right and actually used. It will rapidly get better.

We are already seeing where software is allowed to run some companies with DAO. And as that gets better, small towns with honestly no one there who wants to run for office (which there is a lot of them). They are likely to use AI to fill roles. Then it slowly expands and AI becoming a political figure is normal. Once it goes from senate/congress I imagine it will quickly replace the gov as we know it. Like term limits won't be needed for an AI.

1

Artanthos t1_j46y4jw wrote

Read the second half of my post.

1

crua9 t1_j46zbxy wrote

Again after a point I don't think it will matter.

​

I never thought I would see the day law makers are bringing to vote to basically abolish the IRS but this is being brought up right now. https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11620085/House-Republicans-vote-ABOLISHING-IRS-federal-income-tax.html

Like I doubt this will pass but still.

​

Plus all it would really take is for some AI/robots to be recognized with normal human rights. It is likely one day this will happen. Giving it is a citizen and meets the other requirements (age and what not) it could run and it is likely to win. If enough of them win then they can replace the gov.

1

Artanthos t1_j486pwn wrote

The Republicans have been trying to defund the IRS for decades.

This is neither new nor surprising. It is the reason the IRS is currently understaffed by ~50,000 people.

1

crua9 t1_j46c2nq wrote

>This holds particularly true for government.

Are you sure?

​

Human AI/Robotics
Can be corrupted? Yes No
Can have life events which means time off needed (death in family, someone got hurt, house on fire, etc)? Yes No
You have to legally pay? Yes After it is bought off no unless if it requires a subscription
Can work 24/7? No, there is laws + the human body won't allow it Yes, unless upkeep needs to happen. With software AI this isn't really a thing.
Can have scandals which reflect badly for a gov or company? Yes No

​

I think it is likely one day AI will run the gov. And I think we all will be far more happy with that.

1

Artanthos t1_j46z5t4 wrote

Since I am involved in my agencies current software update, yes.

We are currently updating our front end from ActiveX to a front end more appropriate to 2010. We are looking at 3-5 years for all projects to be completed.

The back end is running on an Access database. Updating the back end is not part of the contract.

Once in place, the new systems are supposed last at least 20 years. I will be retiring by then.

1

crua9 t1_j46zvnc wrote

What I was talking about is AI itself being the boss and what not.

​

Like I think this is going to take decades or more. It has to be tested, and then actually implementing it.

I think anyone working today almost any job is safe. At least those older than 35. But many will be the last generation. Like it is likely in 30 years a lot of jobs will be starting to be slowly replaced by AI or robotics.

None of this is happening in the next few years.

1

Artanthos t1_j485xef wrote

And the government will be another 30 years behind that.

Assuming you can get politicians to vote to replace themselves or convince the general population to go along with being governed by computers.

Neither is likely on any time scale, no matter how advanced the AI is.

Something you left off you chart is trust. A lot of people will not trust computers to govern or make decisions that affect how they are governed. It won’t matter how good the computers might be at it.

1