dasnihil t1_j55450p wrote on January 20, 2023 at 1:44 PM

Reply to comment by Thatingles in I was wrong about metaculus, (and the AGI predicted date has dropped again, now at may 2027) by blueSGL

i just don't get the idea of counting days, are you guys like depressed or something? what do you think will happen the day, let's say nvidia announces that they have achieved neural network to run on a neuromorphic hardware in a very optimal way.

big announcement but we'll all forget about it in a couple of days :)

after that it's a game of implementation and industrialization. how can we make our industries more powerful and take this human enterprise on a next level. i doubt that the leaders and capitalists would have any desire for a utopian society with shared resources and harmony. that kind of ask will take at least a 100 years to be implemented on our society. this is a big change.

i personally don't expect to see much significant changes in my lifetime where i'll get a $500/mo check from some AI Labor Law Allowance. maybe in the coming generations if we play our cards right and don't wipe out all lives and any hopes for artificial life/intelligence.

RabidHexley t1_j56s60f wrote on January 20, 2023 at 8:11 PM

> that kind of ask will take at least a 100 years to be implemented on our society. this is a big change.

I personally have come around to the thought that something like UBI being implemented due to automation won't be from compassionate, socialist ideals, but simply because it will become necessary for capitalism to continue functioning.

Reaching a point where you can produce arbitrary amounts of goods without needing to pay nearly anyone across numerous economic sectors is a recipe for rapid deflation. UBI would become one of the only practical methods of keeping the wheels turning and the money flowing.

Maybe after years of it being the norm it would lead to a cultural shift towards some sort of a properly egalitarian society, but it would start because hyper-efficiency resulting in economic collapse isn't good for anyone including the wealthy.