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leroy_hoffenfeffer t1_j5sad3g wrote

No one knows.

Previous Industrial Revolutions brought with them tons of automation... Out of that fell new jobs and industry.

We're still scratching the surface of Machine Learnings potential. With what we have now, we can imagine Art and other creative works being done by machine, something that was previously thought to be impossible.

Most people (including me) might say Blue Collar work like plumbing or electrician based work. While stuff like that is a safe bet, it's also worth pointing out that that kind of work assumes that humans are still doing the design work for plumbing systems and construction. If A.I replaces design work for those jobs, it could also be within reason to develop other machines to automate the hard labor away. Think of those 3D House Printing robots. No humans required to build those. Why wouldn't someone take the next step and automate the maintenance jobs away too? After all, humans are fallible, machines, if programed correctly, are not. Machines would be the best entity to repair a machine designed house.

I could also say something like IT work or programming. Despite what people would say here, we're still at least fifteen years away from replacing those kinds of jobs. Most work done in that space comes from other humans needing engineers to design solution for difficult, human-based problems. The old joke is "Good luck getting human beings to describe their problems well enough for a machine to comprehend and solve." The punch line thus being that humans are awful at telling other humans what they want. A machine would need a perfectly understandable problem in order to solve it.

But even this is hard to predict. ChatGPT is pretty good at what it does, and it can write basic programs for basic problems. Will more advanced versions be able to suss out the nuance from a human enough to program a solution? That's yet to be seen.

I can tell you first hand that Animation as a tool is an area of active automation research. Hand animating is hard, time consuming, and expensive. Its in everyone's best interest to automate that stuff away. But automating that is also very difficult: you have to inherently rely on Graphics Engines that operate on specialized, usually memory light, environments. You can't employ usual Machine Learning methods here because employing those tools is runtime intensive. From a Video Game perspective, where frame rate is potentially the most important thing, that's a nonstarter: if employing an ML tool to automate animation causes significant lag, that tool will be tossed by the wayside.

This topic is all nuance. You would really need to deeply dive into each particular career path in a novel way in order to get grounded answers to your general question.

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