I think it’s very likely SVB gets absorbed by a larger bank and uninsured depositors get made whole. It’s not guaranteed but usually banks go into receivership on a Friday and by Monday a larger bank has snatched them up. SVB’s collapse looks like a traditional bank run and it’s balance sheet is apparently super conservative. You never know. They could find out something awful this weekend. But the problem (at least as I understand it) was basically that it didn’t have a diversified depositor base and because interest rates have rose, couldn’t sell their bond assets quickly, not that they had risky investments and there’s no valuable assets.

The other scenario is that they can’t find an immediate buyer for all their assets/liabilities and the bank is basically wound down over time. The uninsured depositors might even get 100% back in that scenario but it’ll take time and probably won’t be 100%. It seems very likely there will be buyers, though. It wouldn’t have been insolvent as a division of a larger bank.

I guess a third option is shenanigans. We don’t know what the FDIC is learning this weekend. Shenanigans can always be afoot but there’s no indication the bank president used deposits for NFTs or something else dumb and illegal.