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CloverArms t1_j5osy2g wrote

It's nice to imagine it, however if there's no real functioning prototypes, speculating how long it'll take is moot. The space shuttle first launched 42 years ago. One would think that we've be closer to manned earthly space travel by now. Any advancements over 4 decades I would consider it to be fairly small. The cost gap is astronomical and a diminishing return for almost any company seeking immediate profit.

The sad truth is with the way we're going on this planet, we might never get there before the next mass extinction - except this one will be artificially created.

I'm not a pessimist, just trying to be real. Peace!

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Limos42 t1_j5ozb35 wrote

SpaceX's Starship is about to change all that. The shuttle cost billions per launch, and current (manned) rockets cost hundreds of millions.

Starship will cost an order of magnitude less per launch, and with it's 10x capacity of existing launch vehicles, the cost per kg is another order of magnitude cheaper.

This "cheap" access to space will result in the next leap in human advancement. So much new/renewed focus on new problems to solve, which'll result in new technologies, new inventions, new advancements.

The next 5 years are needed for this new paradigm to mature and become a "commodity" (just like the passenger jet era of aviation) but, from there, the "explosion" will begin.

The 2030's will be an amazing and exciting time to be alive. And, on a slightly different tangent, I can't wait to see what the Clipper and Juice missions learn about Europa, Cassini, and Ganymede (Jupiter), and what Dragonfly learns about Titan (Saturn). Hopefully we'll have something in the works for Enceladus (Saturn) soon, too!

Exciting times ahead!

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