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phl_fc t1_ixwim2g wrote

Reply to comment by Raken_dep in Wales lose to Iran after suffering two late goals in World Cup group game by cryptocandyclub

538 kind of had a point about this a while back on an analytics article about the value of speculative shooting. What they found is that long range shots are usually worth taking because it at least gives you a chance for something good to happen, and that passing the ball around probably isn’t going to improve your chances enough to make up for not taking your shot. They argue that a high volume of low quality shots is a better strategy than trying to pass the ball into the net.

They were looking at the xGA stats for the percentage chance of scoring from every area of the field and saw that passing the ball around to try to get a higher xGA didn’t make up for the volume you could get from lots of lower percentage shots.

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IIIllllIIlllIIlllIIl t1_ixyp5ef wrote

That’s interesting. I had always only looked at it from a tactical perspective. Taking chances forces the opponent to understand that they can’t just sit back in the box. So it opens them up vertically, which opens up the chances inside the box too. When I was a youth coming up through local clubs I had a coach from Nigeria at a training camp teach me to peek up and if I see two posts then take a shot for one of them. He explained that a striker mindset needs to always default to “shoot”. You don’t have time to think about anything else.

I highly suspect all the managers are just copying what they think the correct way is and favoring possession over all else.

In a way you’re absolutely right. You miss 100% of the shots you don’t take. A higher volume of shots will result in a higher volume of goals. And not just any shots. Real attempts. None of this shooting it 20 yards up in the air over the post stuff. Actual shots on goal.

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