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Agnia_Barto t1_j9vbccu wrote

That's what they said 60 years ago

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RandomPeasant1236 t1_j9w4c4z wrote

Well, today we have dish washers and automatic vacuum cleaners. We're advancing, slowly, but advancing

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SpamOJavelin t1_ja00gi9 wrote

TBF we had dishwashers in the 19th century - just because the technology is there doesn’t necessarily mean it becomes mainstream quickly.

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Digitalizing t1_j9yte0i wrote

If you compare today's household tasks to the ones in the '60s, I'd say roughly 40% of the actual tasks/chores done is now automated or fully removed from the equation.

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tristanjones t1_j9vrwrv wrote

'Could' is doing a lot of fucking work in this. Sure we have the technology but it isnt going to be productionalize and cost effective, even if it was, it wouldnt be fully replacing the chore 100%

*Gestures to the roomba trapped in the corner*

This amounts to nothing more than 'We will have fancier appliances over the next 10 years' No fucking duh

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sooprvylyn t1_j9uwmpf wrote

No they wont....robots are expensive because they are made of costly conponents. They arent like ai software that can just be duplicated repeatedly for free.

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fitzroy95 t1_j9uxeiy wrote

except that as volume starts to increase, and technology improves, those components start to get mass-produced and cheaper and the robots built from them will get both better and cheaper. Which is pretty much the path of any new technologies e.g. phones, computers etc.

You may not be able to afford generation 1, but 20 years later they will be commonplace and appearring everywhere

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sooprvylyn t1_j9v8zi1 wrote

These arent just circuit boards and screens in plastic cases. You got servos, motors, pistons, hydraulics, gearing, bearings, seals, etc.....and all those things also wear and tear compounding the issues. Shit like that costs a lot of money to build and maintain.

Im not convinced these robots will be affordable for the average person within 30 years. It will take a loooong time for the mass production of something almost as complex as a car to bring costs down to something resembling affordable for an average family.

Commercial robots otoh are a bit more likely. They are cheaper than hiring a human, they dont get tired, and they can work faster. Its cost effective on a commercial scale. Households dont have enough domestic work to warrant an $$$ robot to do a few tasks around the house.

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fitzroy95 t1_j9vvf01 wrote

maybe, or not. However, places like Japan are investing heavily in humanoid robots to provide a nursing and companion service for their aging population and shrinking young population. I see those as being an avenue for adoption.

Some light housework, some nursing, some sitting and chatting.

either buy or rent...

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sooprvylyn t1_j9w55tt wrote

Pipe dreams....maybe in 50-100 years

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fitzroy95 t1_j9wi2ve wrote

some of the early companion and nursing robots are already available. They've got a long way to go, but Keep improving significantly every year

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sooprvylyn t1_j9x5o2w wrote

Most of those are basically expensive toys($5000 for a seal robot that tracks eyes and flips its tail), and the ones that arent mostly fancy toys, are $$$$ prototypes. Not saying they are useless, or wont end up being badass and common some day. Saying it will be a LOOOONG time before there is a robot maid in every home.

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tiboodchat t1_j9xd469 wrote

They’ll never sell you one outright anyway. If not the hardware, the software will totally be licensed. You’ll likely have to pay a subscription model. They’ll pocket a % of the perceived value of that 40% time you saved.

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CandyCoatedHrtShapes t1_j9vgfwk wrote

Economies of scale. Once they become mass produced it’ll become much cheaper.

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sooprvylyn t1_j9vlme4 wrote

Sure, but still not something the average family will be able to afford anytime soon(probably not in your lifetime), especially as most families dont have human labor costs, like maids, to offset the cost of a complex robot(or multiple single purpose robots).

The complexity of these things will be almost like a car, and the components will not be cheap printed circuitboards and screens in a plastic housing like cell phones or computers. They will have a LOT of precision moving parts requiring regular maintenance and repair. Dont plan on having Rosie from the Jetsons unless you are pretty rich.

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CandyCoatedHrtShapes t1_j9vly0b wrote

We’re probably 10 years or less away from a singularity.

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sooprvylyn t1_j9vmcot wrote

A digital singularity wont eliminate the cost of manufacturing physical compenents out of raw materials, transporting those raw marerials, and finished products, or other costs associated with actual robots.

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CandyCoatedHrtShapes t1_j9vmg9i wrote

It absolutely will.

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sooprvylyn t1_j9vmk6g wrote

I work in manufacturing and have for iver 20 years.....you have no idea what you are talking about.

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CandyCoatedHrtShapes t1_j9vmmu1 wrote

Either do you bro.

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sooprvylyn t1_j9vre5x wrote

Except that i have actual experience with producing a product, which a robot would be. I am intimately familliar with manufacturing and materials costs, transportation, qc and compliance testing, safety testing and all the other fun shit that goes into making consumer goods.

I probably have a slightly better bead on the situation than you do, bro

You think you got it figured cuz you got a C in Econ 101?

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Shot-Spray5935 t1_j9vycgn wrote

First they'll do the chores for the rich. We'll wait 10 years before we can get a lousy robot to do the dishes.

Personally I will wait for a robot that looks like Scarlett Johansson.

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sooprvylyn t1_j9w3lef wrote

We already have lousy robots to do the dishes..they run about $500.

It was actually invented in 1850, but didnt become commonly used until the 1950s, yet still a luxury item until the 1970s.

Robo-scarlet otoh, that would probably not have nearly as long an adoption timeframe.

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SwallowYourDreams t1_j9vgeto wrote

Running (for instance) ChatGPT costs an estimated 10k USD / day. So... there goes your "for free".

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PaulTheMerc t1_ja6ny8q wrote

With the user base it has, that's...like 1c/day per user?

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SwallowYourDreams t1_ja6sw94 wrote

Firstly, it remains to be seen if said users also generate sufficient revenue and not just cost (although it's likely this will happen). Secondly, even if the technology does scale after a while, there's a barrier of entry (computing power of even a starting size does not pay for itself), so it's not just a matter of "copying a few Terabytes of code" like the initial comment suggested.

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sooprvylyn t1_j9vlyh5 wrote

Fine...next to free, captain semantics. There are 25 million users a day...costing $0.0004/user......so basically free.

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Mister_Jay_Peg t1_j9uwme4 wrote

I read articles like this, and all I can think of is adding, "for the uber-wealthy" to the end, because there is no damn way my wife and I, comfortably around 100k a year total could even begin to afford this kind of in-home tech.

Let alone folks who don't have even the small modicum of financial security we do.

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PEVEI t1_j9ux0gg wrote

People said the same about washing machines, dishwashers, automobiles and PC's.

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Mister_Jay_Peg t1_j9uymys wrote

Yeah, an and it took about 50 years for washing machines to become "automated" and another 40 to become a household staple (post-WWII).

Dishwashers were invented in the 1850's, electric dishwashers were invented in the 1910's, and it took another 40 years until they became commercially viable to anyone that was not extremely wealthy. Same thing, post-WWII.

A modern (as we think of it today) PC was not viable to the middle class range until the mid-90's.

Shit, I grew up in the 80's and I can vividly remember seeing the price for a Macintosh in 1984 was $2500 not adjusted for inflation. That amounts to almost $7,200 today. The first computer in my house that my middle class parents could afford was the Tandy model in like 1988, and that was still like a grand at the time.

So yeah, sure. Push the timeframe out long enough and all technology will inevitably become commercially viable for the middle and even lower class.

But 10 years? Bruh. ChatGPT is out there right now saying that Walter Mondale beat Jimmy Carter in Democratic primary in the 1980 Presidential election.

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altmorty OP t1_j9v1vzq wrote

Tech moves far more rapidly than it did back then.

>Shit, I grew up in the 80's and I can vividly remember seeing the price for a Macintosh in 1984 was $2500 not adjusted for inflation. That amounts to almost $7,200 today. The first computer in my house that my middle class parents could afford was the Tandy model in like 1988, and that was still like a grand at the time.

That's weird. There were plenty of way more affordable home computers back then. The ZX Spectrum was £125 (~$188) in 1982.

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sooprvylyn t1_j9vt96h wrote

The spectrum was barely more than a gaming system, and it was not particularly useful for business/home office related tasks. Home computers started to become a bit more popular in mid 80s, but they did cost like $2k+ in 80s dollars. When we got one around 87ish it was a big fucking deal. It had a monochrome screen, a dot matrix printer with punched paper feed, took massive floppies and didnt do shit other than some spreadsheets, word processing and was command prompt based.

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Mister_Jay_Peg t1_j9v2pqd wrote

Tech absolutely does move faster, but to assume that we have ever gone from "nothing" to "viable enough in the modern middle-class home that it fully replaces tasks" is not a 10-year mark. Never has been.

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PEVEI t1_j9v01r4 wrote

So what's your point? Cease technological process because there's a lag between invention and mass adoption?

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Mister_Jay_Peg t1_j9v0pxr wrote

I need a whoosh gif for you. I really do.

I'll break it down for you here, step by step:

  1. The article says that 40% of household tasks could be automated in 10 years.
  2. I comment that the timeline is ludicrous because that tech this is going to be too expensive for this timeframe to be realistic.
  3. You bring up 3 technologies that people said would be too expensive to own.
  4. I show that all three examples of technology absolutely in no way went from hypothetical to middle-class reality within 3 generations, let alone 10 years.

So my point is, and I hope you've made it this far...

The idea that 40% of tasks in a home will be automated within the next 10 years is bullshit.

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PEVEI t1_j9v0wz1 wrote

Got it, so you just disagree with the timeframe on the basis of evidence from... the Industrial Revolution.

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Mister_Jay_Peg t1_j9v122h wrote

I just used the examples you laid out, hoss.

Oh, and the PC isn't from the Industrial Revolution. And it still took nearly 40 years.

Here. Let's use something more modern. Self-driving cars. That's almost a thing now, right? Almost commercially viable? Probably what, 10-12 years away before it becomes possible on a mid-range sedan like the Ford Fusion?

Wanna know how long the self-driving car has been a theoretical "just around the corner" innovation? They've been talking about it since the mid-50's.

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PEVEI t1_j9v15o5 wrote

I think you may be struggling with what "PC" means.

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Mister_Jay_Peg t1_j9v1eph wrote

I think you may be struggling with what "commercially viable to the masses" means.

In 1984, when the Macintosh came out, less than 10% of homes had any version of what can be known as a PC.

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PEVEI t1_j9v1mnl wrote

Not really, it's just that mass adoption has to start somewhere; you object to that in principle, I don't.

Oh sorry, I mean... you object to the time frame in the headline.

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Mister_Jay_Peg t1_j9v1y2b wrote

Please point out where I have said that I object to mass adoption.

Seriously. Point it out. I wanna see where your disconnect is. Because all I have said... Since this has started... And I will say it again... Straight copy/pasted from my previous posts...

The idea that 40% of tasks in a home will be automated within the next 10 years is bullshit.

How does that equate to my objecting to mass adoption?

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PEVEI t1_j9v2424 wrote

> Oh sorry, I mean... you object to the time frame in the headline.

You missed that? Not sure I can help if so.

Putting aside your objection to the 10 year mark though, what's the issue?

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Mister_Jay_Peg t1_j9v3b44 wrote

Have I said I had an issue outside of that? The article is garbage because of the headline and it's inference that this can all be done in that timeframe.

Beyond that, the headline is even MORE garbage because the researcher says nothing specifically about "robots". She talks about automation.

The best part is that in the article... And this really is the best part...

The researcher says essentially the exact same thing I did in my first comment.

Here's the quote:

> But she told the BBC that the expense of technology meant the use of household robots could also lead to “a rise of inequality in free time” - with only richer households able to afford the technology.

Huh... With only richer households able to afford the technology.

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PEVEI t1_j9v3ikh wrote

You just seem very agitated about a mundane part of life: technology takes time to move past the realm of early adopters who can afford it, until it becomes ubiquitous and life changing for everyone.

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Mister_Jay_Peg t1_j9v3x58 wrote

If that's what you think I'm "agitated" about, then man... You should go back and re-read it all.

I've said the article itself is garbage a number of times. I've never said anything against the fact that tech takes time. In fact, it's been my number one point as to WHY the article is garbage.

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Heijoshinn t1_j9wh4ka wrote

Lol and now you're agreeing with the guy you've been debating with who first made that exact same statement through example?

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PaulTheMerc t1_ja6o3i4 wrote

Man, landlord doesn't allow in apartment dishwasher/washing machine

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Traditional_Bus_4830 t1_j9xks53 wrote

I want a hanging/ folding machine to dry your clothes, sort them, fold them and put away! To pair socks too!

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wart365 t1_j9uxoj3 wrote

Shitty article that doesn't expand on any specifics. Most household tasks are already automated, at this point the only ones left are folding laundry and placing microwave dinners into the microwave. This can probably be automated, but most people can't afford another 4x4' onto their laundry room for the laundry-sorting robot arm or 2x2' above/near a compliant microwave for the kitchen claw.

Though that does bring up an important idea: as this happens, the market will split between compliant/automation-usable devices and old-fashioned human devices. We need some larger entity like the government to step in and regulate how that would work so consumers aren't left with discontinued products that end up trashed.

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WynZora t1_j9v2qmg wrote

Most household tasks are already automated?

Soooo, you don’t take care of the household at all huh?

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sooprvylyn t1_j9vsasc wrote

.....there are always clean clothes and dishes, and always food on the table when its needed, the floors are clean, the bed is made.....yeah, automated.

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techmonkey920 t1_j9uweqy wrote

Great... now i'll have to try locking a robot in the basement when i burns my dinner

/s

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exportimport t1_j9vrjp6 wrote

yea like the shite irobot vaccuum?

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xiii_xiii_xiii t1_j9w3x3g wrote

...and then AWS goes down and suddenly the robots designed to do these tasks become expensive paperweights.

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fat_tony7 t1_j9w7t0l wrote

I can do most domestic tasks in just a few minutes!

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Onicc t1_j9wc30z wrote

UBI when? if you think the homeless crisis is bad now, boy.. just you wait!

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arfbrookwood t1_j9x1qd6 wrote

There is no domestic task I want a robot to do. I enjoy cooking, listening to music during light cleaning, and while I wash and dry dishes or the few clothes I wash I listen to radio and daydream. Take away some of the simple chores and what do you have? Maybe it can read to me and make me a whiskey Manhattan but i enjoy those things, too. Fuck off robots.

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aidenr t1_j9yvjrv wrote

“Almost” “40%” “Could” “Within a decade”

Four ways to tell me you have no idea what you’re talking about, without telling me that you don’t know what you’re talking about.

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bobjoylove t1_j9z5by9 wrote

40% of tasks - each requiring a dedicated device. This is the air fryer clutter all over again.

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Caasi6636 t1_j9zayuf wrote

I’m almost certain though that 95% of domestic robot repairs cannot be done by the owner, making it much less feasible.

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